The Strategic Survey 2022: The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics provides a comprehensive analysis of the past year’s events that have shaped the relationships between major powers, highlighting significant geopolitical and geo-economic challenges. It includes essays on global issues such as the conflict in Ukraine, the space arms race, and the US-China rivalry, along with detailed analyses of each continent’s key themes.

Key Findings

• US-China Rivalry: The competition between the U.S. and China intensifies across various domains, shaping the global technological, economic, and security landscape.
• Russia-Ukraine War: The war’s consequences extend far beyond Europe, impacting global energy and food security, triggering sanctions, and redefining power dynamics.
• Emerging Multipolarity: A multipolar world appears, with regional powers like India, Brazil, and Turkey playing more assertive roles internationally.
• Challenges to Global Order: Global governance structures face increasing strain, with challenges to international law, trade, and cooperation on global issues like climate change.
• Technological Advancements: Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons introduce new security dilemmas and ethical considerations.

Key Themes by Region

• Europe: The war in Ukraine dominates the security landscape, prompting increased NATO unity and a focus on strengthening European defense capabilities.
• Asia: US-China tensions escalate across the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and economic spheres. Regional powers seek strategic autonomy and balance of power.
• Middle East: Regional instability persists, with ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen and the broader struggle for influence between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• Africa: Challenges include governance issues, climate change, and security threats like terrorism and extremism. Emerging powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia play increasingly significant roles.
• Americas: Political polarization and social unrest are prominent in several countries, with ongoing challenges related to migration and drug trafficking.

Drivers of Strategic Change

Measures and compares critical trends in the ability of states to use and resist power, focusing on power resources and domestic resilience. These drivers illuminate recent shifts in geopolitics and potential sources of future change by analyzing data from 2001, 2011, and 2021. The first driver depicts the regional share of the global population, GDP, and defense budget, highlighting how the relative power of each region has evolved over the past two decades. This driver underscores the importance of power resources in shaping a region’s potential influence. The second driver focuses on population, age structure, and median age, recognizing population as a power resource and highlighting the significance of age demographics in predicting civil violence and economic trends.

Overview

Chapter 1 – Introduction

Introduces the geopolitical landscape, which two pivotal events have dramatically shaped. Firstly, the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, and secondly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine six months later. These events, far from merely historical footnotes, are anticipated to shape world politics for years. Unexpectedly, they have produced surprising outcomes, such as the swift collapse of Afghan government forces and the remarkable resilience of Ukrainians amidst conflict.

The chapter underscores crucial lessons learned from these events. To begin with, it highlights the dangers of overconfidence in reshaping foreign states and societies. Furthermore, it emphasizes the lasting impact of leaders’ decisions. Most noteworthy is President Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and President Zelenskyy’s brave choice to stay in Kyiv despite the risks. These actions stand out as pivotal moments with far-reaching implications.

Chapter 2 – Key Events

Provides a chronological overview of significant global events from July 2021 to June 2022. It highlights critical developments across various regions and covers multiple political, security, and diplomatic incidents that have significantly shaped the international landscape. To start with, it discusses the shocking event of the assassination of Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse.

Following this, it delves into the accelerated withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, a decision that had far-reaching consequences. The chapter then turns its attention to Russian President Putin’s essay on the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, which stirred considerable debate. Next, it covers the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in Afghanistan, an event that marked a new era in the country’s history. Finally, it concludes with forming the AUKUS trilateral security pact focusing on the Indo-Pacific region, a development that indicates shifting geopolitical alliances.

Chapter 3 – Strategic Prospects

Explores the geopolitical consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This event is characterized as a significant shift in global politics, creating shockwaves that amplify existing divisions and reorient strategic priorities. Before the invasion, the United States and European nations primarily focused on the Indo-Pacific region as the critical strategic theatre. But Russia’s actions shifted attention back to the defense of European security, highlighting its significance to the West.

The chapter explores how the Ukraine conflict has tested Western strategic goals and ethics, underscoring the need to restore European security and reestablish faith in Western leadership. Furthermore, it discusses varied perceptions of the conflict. Despite factual inconsistencies, Russia’s narrative of a provoked invasion is gaining ground. Ultimately, it emphasizes the West’s challenge in maintaining its reputation, defeating Russia, upholding European security, and proving the dependability of its security commitments.

Chapter 4 – Strategic Policy

Delves into examining global strategic dynamics and policy responses to new challenges. Primarily, it discusses strategic decision-making and policy formulation amid the ever-changing geopolitical landscapes. Specifically, it analyses Russia’s war in Ukraine and the significant military lessons arising from this conflict. In addition, it explores the delicate management of competition in outer space and the vital efforts to curb the growing instability in this area.

It also studies China’s military modernization and critically assesses the progress of the People’s Liberation Army reforms. Moreover, the chapter brings to light the broader implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on geopolitics, emphasizing the impacts on global security and strategic relationships. Lastly, it offers invaluable insights into the strategic challenges of the conflict and its profound effects on international security dynamics.

Chapter 5 – North America

Examines the effect of political polarization and institutional strain on U.S. democracy, highlighting the vulnerability of democratic institutions to internal divisions. It also analyzes the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, assessing the lessons learned and their implications for U.S. foreign policy. Finally, it discusses the Biden administration’s strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region, detailing the challenges and opportunities in this area of global competition. It offers a nuanced analysis of the administration’s policies and strategies in response to changing geopolitical dynamics.

Chapter 6 – Asia

Begins with an examination of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and its domestic and foreign policy implications. It then discusses the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party and the domestic and international policy decisions China faces at this pivotal moment. It also explores India’s evolving foreign policy towards multi-alignment and multilateralism, assessing how India manages intricate great-power relationships.

Further, it investigates the strategic impact of the AUKUS trilateral security pact on longstanding allies in the region, underscoring the changing security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Finally, it examines the future of Asia’s online activism through the perspective of the Milk Tea Alliance, highlighting the influence of digital platforms on regional discourse and activism.

Chapter 7 – Europe

Explores Europe’s response to the Ukraine war and other challenges, highlighting the evolving security landscape’s implications for European stability and cohesion. It also delves into the situation in the Western Balkans, discussing the region’s prospects for transformation and upcoming challenges. Furthermore, the chapter contextualizes Europe’s role in the broader spectrum of the Ukraine war and the region’s transformation aspirations. Lastly, it addresses the conflict’s impact on European security dynamics and the efforts to navigate geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.

Chapter 8 – Russia and Eurasia

Conducts an in-depth analysis of what drives strategic change in the region. Initially, the chapter studies Russian state power and civil society. It also considers the war in Ukraine’s influence on public opinion, emphasizing the regime’s management strategies and difficulties in maintaining domestic support. Simultaneously, it scrutinizes the upheaval in Central Asia, analyzing the factors instigating change in Eurasia’s heartland. Additionally, it discusses the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the following Western sanctions. This dialogue illustrates the new era of economic statecraft and the changing dynamics of Russia’s relations with the West. Finally, it considers the broader implications of these developments on regional security and stability.

Chapter 9 – Middle East and North Africa

Starts by examining the tensions in Western Sahara and the potential for conflict escalation, highlighting the region’s challenges and risks. It then investigates Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy adjustments under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), analyzing changes in Saudi diplomacy and their impact on the kingdom’s modernization efforts. Moreover, it assesses the status of the Iran nuclear deal, exploring alternative strategies to restrain Iran’s nuclear activities and the more significant implications for regional security and stability. It concludes by addressing the rise of Islamic militancy in Southern Africa and its effects on regional security dynamics.

Chapter 10 – Sub-Saharan Africa

Initiates by examining the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its challenges and opportunities in addressing escalating regional economic and military issues. It then investigates Russia’s military activities in Africa over the past decade and assesses the potential implications of Russia’s increased regional security and stability involvement. Additionally, it delves into the insurgency in Mozambique and explores its wider repercussions for Southern Africa. It specifically looks at the rise of Islamic militancy and its effect on regional security dynamics. It discusses broader economic development, governance, and security trends across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Chapter 11 – Latin America

It commences by examining Chile’s pursuit of a more inclusive development model, particularly the defeat of the new constitution and its potential impact on Chile’s future political and economic direction. It also explores the escalating US-China rivalry in Latin America, offering a critical analysis of the geopolitical competition between these two regional global powers. Moreover, the chapter discusses broad trends in Latin America, including political shifts, economic hurdles, and security dynamics. Notably, it considers how external influences impact regional stability and the potential for cooperation and conflict in Latin America.