A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future

The National Security, Military, and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP) analyzed the security implications of two warming scenarios: Near Term (1-2^oC by mid-century), and Medium-Long Term (2-4^oC). The former would pose High to Very High security threats; the latter would pose a Very High to Catastrophic threat to national and global security.  At all levels of warming, climate change will pose significant and evolving threats to global security environments, infrastructure, institutions, and US military missions in all geographic areas.  These threats could come about rapidly.  Mitigating these risks requires reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions, making infrastructure and institutions “climate-proof”, and integrating these considerations across all security planning.

Also see:

A Climate Security Plan for America (CCS, Sept 2019, 48p) and All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change by Michael T. Klare (Metropolitan Books/Henry Holt, Nov 2019, 293p), a readable and amply-documented review of humanitarian emergencies, global shockwaves (pandemics, food shortages, energy crises, mass migrations), great power clashes over the melting Arctic and other conflict zones, domestic climate disasters, threats to US military facilities, and the Pentagon as a green change agent. (https://climateandsecurity.org)