Report on Recent Reports #7, Spring 2024

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May 16, 2024

MANY RISKS AND REMEDIES: PEACE, CLIMATE, AGI, AND MORE

Polycrisis and Existential Threats

Different organizations use different terms for the compound concepts of “polycrisis” and “existential threats and/or risks.”  And they focus on different mixes of threats and risks. The Global Challenges Foundation in Stockholm focuses on three prominent “global catastrophic risks” involving climate, ecology and WMDs (7:1).  The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in its current Doomsday Clock Statement on “the deteriorating state of the world” (7:2), also considers climate and the nuclear threats, but adds evolving biological threats and the dangers of AI.

The Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum (7:3) notes “a deteriorating outlook” and ranks 34 risks over the next 2 years and 10 years (the top three for 2026 are misinformation, extreme weather, and polarization; the top three for 2034 are extreme weather, Earth system change, and biodiversity loss). The threat assessment overview of the US intelligence community (7:4) views “an increasingly fragile global order” and worries about nuclear weapons and the environment like the three organizations above, as well as several threats not considered by the others, e.g., global terrorism, organized crime, health security, and nasty state actors.

Proposed remedies

Proposed remedies are extensive but also fragmented. A UNIDIR exploration of futures for peace and security (7:5) utilizes five scenarios, ranging from harmonious international relations to many high-intensity conflicts and fragmented relations, while making >60 proposals in 18 categories, including streamlining disarmament and prioritizing human security. A new peace agenda policy brief for the UN Secretary-General’s “Common Agenda” (7:6) summarizes 70 proposals under 12 categories, including addressing peace enforcement and stronger collective security.  The World Meteorological Organization, after noting 2023 as the warmest year on record by far, seeks to expand its early warnings (7:7).

The World Resources Institute, while noting “spectacular gains” addressing the climate emergency, also notes that only 1 of 42 indicators assessed is on track to reach the 2030 target (7:8).  The European Climate Risk Assessment (7:9), describing Europe as “the fastest-warming continent,” identifies 36 climate risks and ranks them by urgency to act for six areas: food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, etc.—an excellent model for other continents.  The IISD  State of Global Environmental Governance report (7:10) views 2023 as “a sobering year” while surveying the good news in several areas.

Global governance

Global Governance is also the theme of the last five items, as it concerns artificial intelligence, overcoming polarization, and safeguarding endangered Earth-regulating systems.  The UN Economic and Social Council (7:11) provides an excellent overview of AI’s potential to “accelerate” the implementation of 5 SDGs regarding poverty, education, work, industry, and climate action, while also describing 10 risks and challenges, such as overreliance on AI and job displacement. Economist Impact (7:12) provides four scenarios of AI development and governance to 2030, ranging from global consensus to a patchwork of policies. But these valuable reports only report on today’s AI, or Artificial Narrow Intelligence.

Many AI experts believe that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which acts autonomously, could exist in 3-5 years. Recognizing the “common existential threat of AGI,” The Millennium Project (7:13) conducted a real-time Delphi among 229 experts on five governance models and potential AGI regulations for developers and the UN. Enabling this complex management task, the UN Development Programme (7:14) encourages greater cooperation in a polarized world by pursuing common ground, promoting human security, and a 21st Century architecture for global pubic goods. This architecture could include a new paradigm on “the Planetary Commons” to strengthen Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene (7:15).


RRR 7:1 Global Catastrophic Risks 2024: Managing Risks Through Collective Action

Global Challenges Foundation, Jan 2024, 49p.

Focuses on three of the most prominent risks that threaten our societies, and how they interact and exacerbate each other.

Climate Change (by Johan Rockstrom) on six of the nine processes that provide life-supporting functions of our planet (climate, surface and groundwater, global nature, nutrient cycles, etc) having transgressed planetary boundaries with little sign of slowing down, bringing the earth system ever closer to known tipping points.

Ecological Collapse (by David Obura) on planetary injustice sharpened by climate change, such as loss of ecosystem services at the local level.

Weapons of Mass Destruction (by Francesca Giovannini) explains how climate change catalyzes conflicts within and among nations and poses direct risks to existing nuclear infrastructure, potentially leading to catastrophic accidents such as Fukushima. Global governance reform must consider safe and just earth system boundaries, a “liveable future” as our window of opportunity, governance of overlapping risks, global constitutionalism, unmuting civil society, people-centered approaches, and preparing for future shocks.

[ALSO SEE:  Rockstrom et al, RRR7:15 on tipping points.]

RRR 7:2 “A Moment of Historic Danger: It Is Still 90 Seconds to Midnight,”

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2024 Doomsday Clock Statement, 23 January 2024. 

The members of the BAS Science and Security Board are “deeply worried about the deteriorating state of the world,” having set the famous Clock at 100 seconds to midnight in 2022 and 90 seconds in 2023, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been since founded in 1947 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and others. 

Current concerns are the many dimensions of nuclear threat (as spending programs of the three largest powers threaten a nuclear arms race as arms control architecture collapses), climate change (an “ominous outlook” as 2023 suffered its hottest year on record, while current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “are grossly insufficient” to avoid dangerous impacts), evolving biological threats (convergence of AI and biological technologies “may radically empower individuals to misuse biology”), and the dangers of AI (“concern about existential risks arising from further rapid advancements,” and accelerating military uses of AI). The world’s leading powers should commence serious dialogue to reduce the likelihood of global catastrophe from each of these global threats. 

[ALSO SEE: RRR7:11-7:13 on AI, and The Era of Global Risk (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk/Open Bok Publishers, Nov 2023, pp.173-200) on biosecurity in the age of biotechnology.]

RRR 7:3 The Global Risks Report 2024

World Economic Forum, Jan 2024, 121p.

The 19th annual edition presents the Global Risks Perceptions Survey findings by nearly 1500 experts, ranking 34 global risks over the next 2 and 10 years. The Top Ten Risks for 2026, ranked by severity, are Misinformation and disinformation, Extreme weather events, Societal polarization, Cyber insecurity, Interstate armed conflict, Lack of economic opportunity, Inflation, Involuntary migration, Economic downturn, and Pollution.

The Top Ten Risks for 2034

  • Extreme weather events, Critical change to Earth systems, Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, Natural resource shortages, Misinformation and disinformation, Adverse AI outcomes, Involuntary migration, Cyber insecurity, Societal polarization, and Pollution.

Key Findings

  • “a deteriorating global outlook…expected to worsen over the next decade,” with a moderate risk of global catastrophes expected by 54% of respondents, “environmental risks could hit the point of no return,” truth remaining under pressure as polarization grows. Technological risks remain unchecked, economic strains are set to grow on low- and middle-income people, simmering geopolitical tensions combined with AI in charge driving new security risks. Cooperation is under pressure in this “fragmented, in-flux world.” However, key opportunities for action can be taken locally or internationally, individually or collaboratively, “that can significantly reduce the impact of global risks.”

RRR 7:4 Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community

Office of the US Director of National Intelligence, 5 Feb 2024, 40p. 

“During the next year, the US faces an increasingly fragile global order strained by accelerating strategic competition among major powers, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges, and multiple regional conflicts.” This non-technical unclassified overview “examines the most serious immediate and long-term threats to the US, along with the evolving global order…(in that) the world is beset by an array of shared, universal issues requiring cooperative global solutions.” The contents are in two sections.

STATE ACTORS:

  • An ambitious but anxious China, a confrontational Russia, Iran as “a regional menace,” North Korea expanding its WMD capacity, the Gaza Conflict fueled by Iran, Potential Interstate Conflict, and Potential Intrastate Turmoil.

TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES:

  • Disruptive technology, digital authoritarianism (a core component of repressive toolkits), WMDs and expansion of nuclear weapon stockpiles, shared domains (environmental change, extreme weather, increased migration, and health security forecasting a “shortage of >10m healthcare workers by 2030”), and non-state actor issues (transnational organized crime, human trafficking, global terrorism, and private military and security companies as “a growing presence threatening security in many countries.”)

RRR 7:5 International Security in 2045: Exploring Futures for Peace, Security and Disarmament

Sarah Grand-Clement and 15 Others. UN Institute of Disarmament Research, Dec 2023, 64p. 

Various threats directly impact peace and security and achieve the SDGs. This foresight study utilizes five scenarios:

  • A Modern Utopia: harmonious international relations, democratization, more parts of Earth liveable than in the 2020s;
  • Fragmented Fault Lines: multiple spheres of influence, democratization, Earth liveable in most places, few conflicts;
  • Waiting for Godot: democratic backsliding, the strong role of the private sector, frequent localized conflict, Earth liveable in most places;
  • War and Peace: democratic backsliding, frequent localized conflict, decreased private sector influence, decreased Earth livability;
  • Paradise Lost: authoritarianism, high-intensity conflicts abound, fragmented international relations, decrease Earth’s livability. 

More than 60 proposals in 18 categories are summarized (pp7-9), including Security Council reform, keeping track of changes, approaching issues from a broader lens, streamlining the disarmament agenda, greater feedback loops, re-examining incentives, incentive-based coalitions, greater enforcement mechanisms, emphasizing benefits of compliance, changing the deterrence narrative, re-examining peace and conflict concepts, regular discussions on technology issues, a focus on the 2030 Agenda and beyond, and prioritizing human security.

RRR 7:6 A New Agenda for Peace

Eliane El Haber and 4 Others. Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 9, July 2023, 7p. 

Building on proposals in Our Common Agenda (RRR3), the Secretary-General is publishing a series of policy briefs as inputs to the 2024 Summit of the Future.  “Recommitting peace is necessary at this time.”  This can be done by 70 proposals listed under 12 Actions:

  • Eliminate Nuclear Weapons: reverse the erosion of international norms against their spread and use; take steps to avoid mistakes; reinforce the nonproliferation regime.
  • Boost Preventive Diplomacy in an Era of Divisions: make greater use of the UN as the most inclusive arena for diplomacy; strengthen UN capacity to undertake diplomatic initiatives.
  • Shift the Prevention and Sustaining Peace Paradigm Within Countries: develop national prevention strategies to address different drivers of violence; ensure that human rights are at the heart of prevention strategies; and provide more finance for the Peacebuilding Fund.
  • Accelerate the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to Address Underlying Drivers of Violence and Insecurity: implement proven development pathways that enhance the social contract.
  • Transform Gendered Power Dynamics in Peace and Security: commit to ending all forms of gender-based violence.
  • Address Links Between Climate, Peace, and Security: under the IPCC, develop integrated approaches.
  • Reduce the Human Cost of Weapons: treaties banning inhumane and indiscriminate weapons; renew efforts to limit conventional arms.
  • Strengthen Peace Operations and Partnerships: operations must be significantly more integrated and leverage the full range of civilian capacities.
  • Address Peace Enforcement: support counter-terrorism with strategic action groups.
  • Support Subregional Peace Support Operations: e.g., the African Union.
  • Promote Responsible Innovation: prohibit autonomous weapons systems, prevent conflict in outer space, address biorisks, and develop responsible AI.
  • Build a Stronger Collective Security Machinery: reforming the Security Council, revitalizing the General Assembly, and enhancing the Peacebuilding Commission.

RRR 7:7 State of the Global Climate 2023

World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No 1347.  March 2024, 53p. 

“The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces.” The year 2023 was “by far the warmest year on record,” breaking every single climate indicator, including ocean heat, global mean sea level, Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet shrinking, loss of glacier ice, and snow cover. “Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and intense tropical cyclones wreaked havoc on every continent, causing huge socio-economic losses. There were particularly devastating consequences for vulnerable populations who suffer disproportionate impacts.” 

Food security and population displacement continue to be of mounting concern, with weather and climate hazards exacerbating the situation in many parts of the world. Also considers the state of climate finance and the total cost of inaction. To make climate information more accessible and actionable, WMO is expanding its Early Warnings For All initiative, creating a Global Greenhouse Gas Watch for climate change mitigation, and supporting the transition to renewable energy with “tailor-made weather and climate services.” 

[ALSO SEE:World’s Top Scientists Expect Global Heating to Blast Past 1.5C Target,” The Guardian, 8 May 2024, on a survey of 380 members of the IPCC: 77% foresee at least 2.5C of global heating by 2100, nearly half see at least 3.0C, and only 6% thought that the 1.5C limit would be met. Reinforces forecasts in RRR6: 2-5.]

RRR 7:8 State of Climate Action 2023

S.L. Boehm and 23 Others. World Resources Institute, Systems Change Lab, Nov 2023, 244p. 

Supported by the Bezos Earth Fund, ClimateWorks Foundation, Climate Analytics, and NewClimate Institute, this detailed report notes two opposing truths: “we are deep in the climate emergency… (where) progress falls woefully short across the board,” yet “we are seeing spectacular gains that are surprising even optimists… (notably in) utility scale-solar photovoltaics and onshore wind as the cheapest options for electricity generation in the large majority of countries.” A chart on p4 surveys global net anthropogenic GHG emissions by sector in 2021: energy (20.7%), agriculture and forestry (10.4%), industry (12.0%, including metals, chemicals, and cement), transport (8.1%), buildings (3.2%) and waste (2.4%).

However, only 1 of 42 indicators assessed—the rising share of electric vehicles in passenger car sales—is on track to reach its 2030 target. Change is heading in the right direction for nearly three-quarters of the indicators, but the pace is insufficient for 6 indicators, well below the required speed for another 24, and heading in the wrong direction for 6, with insufficient data to evaluate the remaining 5. “Getting on track for 2030 will require an enormous acceleration in effort.” Coal-fired power must be phased out 7 times faster, and deforestation rates must decline 4 times faster. Increases in the investment ratio in low-carbon to fossil fuel energy supply need to occur >10 times faster. “Leaders must pick up the pace and shift into emergency mode.”

RRR 7:9 European Climate Risk Assessment

European Environment Agency (Copenhagen) March 2024, 340p; 40p Executive Summary.

“Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world.” Extreme heat, once relatively rare, is becoming more frequent.  Downpours and catastrophic floods are increasing in severity in various regions.  At the same time, southern Europe can expect considerable declines in overall rainfall and more severe droughts. “Climate change is a risk multiplier that can exacerbate existing risks and crises.”  Climate events compromise food and water security, energy security, financial security, and the health of outdoor workers and the general population. “Cascading climate risks can lead to system-wide challenges affecting whole societies, especially vulnerable social groups.” 

Several climate risks have already reached critical levels. The assessment identifies 36 climate risks across Europe, evaluated in risk severity, policy horizon (lead time and decision horizon), policy readiness, risk ownership, and priorities for EU policy action. Of note is Figure ES.2, p6, showing two paths of decadal temperature rise to 2100. Figure ES.4 (p12) ranks climate risks by urgency to act for six clusters: ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and economy and finance.

RRR 7:10 State of Global Environmental Governance 2023

IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin, March 2024, 38p.

An overview of reaching milestones in 2023, funding implementation, missed opportunities, geopolitics, stocktakes on chemical pollution, sustainable development, agriculture, climate change, and biodiversity. “Across the board, 2023 was a sobering year for those worried about the environment. Even scientists were surprised by the rate of degradation.”  Biodiversity loss was significantly more alarming than first thought, and AI “caused existential worries.” Five major climate tipping points tipped (see Global Tipping Points Report, RRR6:5). And the latest results of the 17 SDGs “did not inspire applause, with the world on track to meet just 15% of its 169 targets, while 37% show signs of stagnation or reversal.

The GOOD NEWS:

  • Renewable energy could overtake coal in 2024 as the world’s largest source of electricity, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are declining in the environment and our bodies, the International Conference on Chemicals Management adopted the Global Framework on Chemicals and its 28 goals, the Minamata Convention agreed to phase out mercury in cosmetics by 2025, negotiations for a plastics treaty featured repeated calls to reduce or phase out harmful chemical additives in plastics, countries completed the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Agreement, and the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund was unanimously ratified at the 7th Global Environment Facility  Assembly. 

[ALSO SEE: IISD/ENB (4 March 2024, Summary Report, 18p) on the 6th UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, with a record 7,000 delegates, and the IISD/ENB Ocean Decade Conference Bulletin (15 April 2024, 14p) on major initiatives to improve ocean health, bringing together ocean stakeholders globally.]

RRR 7:11 Artificial Intelligence Governance to Reinforce the 2030 Agenda and Leave No One Behind

UN Economic and Social Council, Note by the Secretariat, E/C.16/2024/7, 29 Jan 2024, 16p. 

AI is increasingly being used worldwide “with immense potential benefits.”  However, as it evolves rapidly, “many challenges, risks and ethical concerns remain that must be addressed urgently.” 

AI Potentials for “accelerated implementation of the 2030 Agenda”:

  1. Poverty Eradication (SDG#1): by better targeting of vulnerable groups and pro-poor policies, improving access to basic services, improving agriculture, and offering affordable banking services; 
  2. Quality Education (SDG#4):  tailored content to individual students, interactive educational tools, making education and resources available to a much broader audience;
  3. Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG#8): increased productivity and assistance with complex tasks, cost reduction, creation of new jobs, improved access to expertise;
  4. Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure (SDG#9): accelerated R&D in various industries by analyzing vast amounts of data, optimizing traffic systems, more efficient large-scale utilities, optimized supply chains, and efficiencies in manufacturing;
  5. Climate Action (SDG#13): improved climate change prediction, more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, decreased GHG emissions, and increased renewable energy efficiency.

Risks and Challenges:

  1. Overreliance on AI reduces human interaction and critical thinking.
  2. Job displacement, especially manual labor, and repetitive tasks leads to widening workforce disparities in many countries, exacerbating international inequalities (perhaps leading to a universal basic income).
  3. Insufficient workforce reskilling (IBM estimates that 40% of the 3.4 billion global workforce will need to reskill in the next three years).
  4. Loss of traditional industries relied on in developing countries.
  5. Lack of accurate and representative data that increases the risk of bias.
  6. AI developed and owned by a handful of countries or corporations, leading to even wider economic and educational inequality.
  7. Moral and ethical values instilled in AI systems that foster bias and discrimination.
  8. Deepfakes and misinformation manipulate public opinion and deepen polarization.
  9. Security risks resulting in cyberattacks and other misuse; 10) possible development of artificial general intelligence that surpasses human intelligence [see RRR7:13 on AGI], leading to “unintended consequences and potentially existential risks.” 

[ALSO SEE:AI and Nuclear Command, Control and Communications” by Alice Saltini (European Leadership Network, Nov 2023, 42p) on risks of integrating AI into NC3 systems, and “Military AI as a Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk” in The Era of Global Risk (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk/Open Book Publishers, Nov 2023, pp237-284).

RRR 7:12. AI Landscapes: Exploring Future Scenarios of AI Through to 2030

Rachel Adams and 20 Others. Economist Impact, Feb 2024, 29p. 

Supported by Google, this report on “the most critical and uncertain factors shaping AI development, use, and impact” builds on a literature review, a Delphi survey, workshops, and interviews with technology and policy experts. Four scenarios result from this “strategic foresight programme”:

1) The Global Orchard:

  • Calmed geopolitical tensions enable productive talks between global leaders on AI regulation and governance; a new International AI Agency supports global consensus between UN member states on ethical principles and technical standards; and strong liability frameworks support compliance, enabling a boom in responsible AI innovation.

2) Walled Gardens:

  • Global AI governance structures align on technical standards but fail to do so for ethical and values-based principles; lack of alignment between human rights structures and privacy limits public trust in AI; the US and China dominate as commercial leaders, while smaller firms face high compliance costs.

3) AI Jungle:

  • Competing interests, geopolitical considerations, and commercial pressure are dominant priorities. Global governance structures are misaligned. A diverse AI ecosystem emerges with regulatory blocs between countries with shared values. This allows democratized innovation but opens consumers up to malicious actors.

4) Techno Archipelago:

  • Countries worldwide cannot agree on core fundamental principles, resulting in a patchwork of policies and frameworks; more advanced economies build effective enabling environments for AI development; fragmented data standards prevent scalability, leading to poor-quality outcomes in certain fields. 

[ALSO SEE: 2023 Global Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Report, George Mason University AI Strategies Team & The Stimson Center (Aug 2023, 47p), analyzing 54 national AI plans, finding different strategies pursued by multiple nations beyond the US and China, in turn forming country clusters in the EU, East Asia, Latin America, and the British Commonwealth. “There is no grand strategy or conclusion that applies to all AI infrastructures.”]

RRR 7:13 Requirements for Global Governance of Artificial General Intelligence: Phase 2 of a Real-Time Delphi

The Millennium Project (Jerome Glenn, CEO), April 2024, 46p. 

AGI is “a general-purpose AI that can learn, edit its code, and act autonomously to address novel problems with novel and complex strategies similar to or better than humans.”  It differs from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), which has a narrower purpose and includes current and near-future forms of generative AI.  “AGI does not exist yet, but many AGI experts believe it could in 3-5 years.”  Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) sets its goals and acts independently from human control.  How we manage the transition from ANI to AGI “is likely to shape the transition from AGI to ASI.”

Phase 1, International Governance Issues of the Transition from ANI to AGI (Fall 2023, 66p)

  • Identified 22 key questions related to the safe development and use of AGI, submitted to 55 leading experts from the US, China, EU, Russia, UK, and Canada, resulting in cited responses from Sam Altman, Geoffrey Hinton, Stuart Russell, Nick Bostrom, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Yuval Noah Harari, etc.  The answer, “a way to get all the AGI issues on the table,” enabled a Real-Time Delphi, allowing users to return as often as they wished to read other comments and edit their own. 

Phase 2 was sent to 338 people from 65 countries, with 229 giving at least one comment. 

  • Participants rated the effectiveness of five governance models: a multi-stakeholder body in partnership with an ANI system, a multi-agency model with a UN AGI Agency as the main organization, decentralized emergence through interactions of many AI organizations and developers, all AI training chips and inference chips in a limited number of computer centers under international supervision, and two divisions in a UN AI Agency for ANI and AGI. Potential AGI regulations and rules are listed for developers (11, e.g., proven safety with recognized values), governments (12, e.g., preventing deepfakes and disinformation), the UN (11, e.g., protocols for interactions among AGIs of different countries), and users (4).  Most respondents “recognized the common existential threat of unregulated AGI.” Phase 2 concludes, “Governing AGI could be the most complex, difficult management problem humanity has ever faced.” Phase 1 and 2 results will inform AGI Governance scenarios in Phase 3.

RRR 7:14. Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World. Human Development Report 2023-2024

UN Development Programme, E.24.111.B.2, March 2024, 324p. 

We live in a tightly-knit world. Yet shared, interlinked global challenges, such as runaway climate change, outpacing our capacity to respond.  “We face a global gridlock, exacerbated by growing polarization within our countries,” resulting in barriers to international cooperation.  Why are we so stuck despite all our riches and technologies?  Moreover, two main drivers of interdependence are likely to shape our future in the decades to come: the dangerous planetary changes deepening global connections among societies, economies, and ecosystems and an unfolding Digital Revolution that has led to a “dizzying increase in the sharing of data, ideas, and culture across societies.” To break the gridlock, this report encourages pursuing three ideas to fight for:

Pursuing Common Ground

  • This is imperative while accepting that people have the right to retain their diverse interests and priorities; piercing a fog of false differences or misperceptions is one of the most effective ways of changing to cooperation on shared challenges;

Enabling People to Pursue Human Security

  • The 1994 HDR report  introduced the notion of legitimate and natural human security ambitions, giving people “agency to shape their lives free from fear, want, and living without dignity”; institutions need to become more people-centered co-owned, and future-oriented;

A 21st Century Architecture For Global Public Goods

  • Including planetary public goods (climate change mitigation, pandemic preparedness, preserving biodiversity) and digital public goods (enabling people to flourish in more equitable ways); this would complement development assistance to poorer countries and humanitarian assistance, aiming for “transfers from rich countries to poorer ones that advance goals for every country to benefit.”

RRR 7:15. “The Planetary Commons: A New Paradigm for Safeguarding Earth-regulating Systems in the Anthropocene,”

Johan Rockstrom and 21 Others, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 121:5, 22 Jan 2024.  

The Anthropocene fundamentally differs from the Holocene due to the “exponential rise of human pressures on the planet.” It has reached a level where signs of exceeding the coping capacity of ecologically adaptive biophysical systems and processes that regulate the state of the planet are now evident. The decline of planetary resilience is revealed by “planetary boundaries” science.  Humanity is now exiting safe operating spaces, with 6 of 9 planetary boundaries now assessed as crossed, including those for climate change, biosphere integrity, land use, freshwater, novel entities, and nitrogen and phosphorous biogeochemical cycles.  Planetary subsystems can potentially exhibit tipping behavior. 

A chart shows 16 tipping elements, with several crossed already or close to doing so at 1.5oC global temperature rise, e.g., ice sheet loss in Greenland and West Antarctic and boreal permafrost thaw.  Crossing tipping points is likely to disrupt socio-economic and political systems. The global commons framework developed by Elinor Ostrom must now evolve in light of these new dynamics. A new paradigm is proposed—the Planetary Commons—that differs from the global commons framework by including critical biophysical systems that regulate resilience and livability on Earth.  It should “articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.” All states and peoples have collective vested interests so that they are protected and governed effectively for the common good. 

[ALSO SEE the Univ of Exeter Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Dec 2023 RRR 6:5.]

Prior RRR Issues

For more on reports and some 3000 organizations see
The Security and Sustainability Guide

Assembled by Michael Marien (mmarien@twcny.rr.com);
Senior Principal, Security & Sustainability Guide;
Research Director, Existential Threats and Risks to All (EXTRA) Working Group, World Academy of Art & Science.

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