Offers a forward-looking analysis of emerging risks and challenges that Europe’s decision-makers may encounter in the near future. Its goal is to assist policymakers in navigating a global landscape becoming more complex, uncertain, and characterized by turbulence, novelty, and ambiguity. This report provides insights into the complex, interconnected risks that lie ahead. It aims to aid in creating proactive and adaptive strategies to ensure Europe’s resilience and stability amidst growing uncertainties.

Key Highlights

1. Emerging Risks:
   • Identifies and analyzes emerging risks that could impact Europe in the coming years. These risks span various domains, including technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, environmental changes, and socio-economic transformations.
2. Technological Risks:
   • One primary focus is the risks of rapid technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technologies. It discusses the potential for AI to disrupt labor markets, exacerbate inequalities, and pose ethical and security challenges.
3. Geopolitical and Economic Risks:
   • Highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties that could affect Europe’s stability and prosperity. It emphasizes the need for robust strategies to manage these risks and maintain resilience in the face of global disruptions.
4. Environmental and Climate Risks:
   • Underscores the urgency of addressing climate-related risks through sustainable policies and international cooperation to mitigate their impact on ecosystems, economies, and societies.
5. Socio-Economic Risks:
   • Examines socio-economic risks, including demographic changes, migration pressures, and social inequalities. It calls for comprehensive policies to address these issues and promote social cohesion and inclusivity.
6. Policy Recommendations:
   • Provides several policy recommendations for effectively managing these emerging risks. These include enhancing risk assessment and foresight capabilities, fostering innovation and technological governance, strengthening international cooperation, and promoting sustainable development practices.

Overview

Potential future developments

Presents ten potential scenarios, providing insights into changes impacting society, culture, and business. It encourages strategic thinking by prompting readers to consider alternative futures, anticipate possible risks and opportunities, and broaden their perspectives. Engaging with these hypothetical but plausible scenarios helps individuals adapt to evolving circumstances and make informed decisions in an ever-changing landscape.

It also emphasizes the importance of exploring the cascade of effects resulting from these potential future changes. The text highlights the interconnectedness of cause-and-effect relationships, asserting that changes in one area can cause a ripple effect across various domains. By examining these cause-and-effect chains, the section seeks to enhance understanding of how future scenarios might unfold and their potential societal implications.

Moreover, it aims to cultivate critical thinking and foresight by urging readers to contemplate unexpected possibilities. This approach empowers individuals to anticipate and prepare for future challenges and opportunities, improving their ability to navigate an increasingly complex and dynamic world.

Ten clusters of future risks

Presents an analysis of risks identified across various futures wheels exercises, categorizing them into ten overarching clusters. Each cluster represents a distinct category of risks that policymakers and decision-makers should consider when formulating strategies and policies. The section outlines current phenomena related to each risk cluster, highlighting potential impacts if these risks materialize. Additionally, it explores how potential future developments identified in the analysis could either exacerbate these risks or escalate them into crises.

Organizing risks into these clusters helps decision-makers uncover blind spots in their risk assessments by offering a holistic perspective on the diverse sources of potential disasters. Furthermore, the analysis of risks within each cluster sheds light on the interconnected nature of risks and the pathways through which they may emerge.

1. Break-down of international cooperation

Addresses the potential risks associated with breaking or weakening international cooperation among nations. Such a scenario could lead to challenges in addressing global issues collaboratively, such as climate change, pandemics, or security threats. It explores how disruptions in international cooperation could impact diplomatic relations, trade agreements, and multilateral efforts to tackle shared challenges.

2. Decline of the European Union’s economy

Discusses the risks linked to a potential economic decline within the European Union. It examines factors contributing to economic instability, such as financial crises, trade disruptions, or internal political tensions. It analyzes the implications of an economic downturn on EU member states, the eurozone, and broader global economic dynamics.

3. Decrease of well-being

Focuses on risks related to a decline in overall well-being within societies. It addresses factors impacting mental health, social cohesion, and quality of life, such as inequality, social isolation, or environmental stressors. It explores how diminishing well-being could affect individuals, communities, and the broader social fabric.

4. Disrupted critical supply chains

Highlights risks associated with disruptions in critical supply chains essential for various industries and sectors. Discusses vulnerabilities in global supply networks, dependencies on specific regions for crucial resources, and the potential consequences of supply chain disruptions on production, distribution, and economic stability. Also, it addresses strategies to enhance supply chain resilience and mitigate risks.

5. End of dominance of humans

Addresses risks related to shifts in humans’ role and influence in various domains, such as technology, governance, or the environment. It explores scenarios where artificial intelligence, automation, or environmental changes challenge human supremacy or traditional power structures. Discusses implications for society, ethics, and the future of work in a world where human dominance is no longer assured.

6. Erosion of democracy

Focuses on risks of erasing democratic principles, institutions, and practices. It examines threats to democratic governance, such as authoritarianism, populism, disinformation, or political polarization. Analyzes the impact of democratic erosion on civil liberties, political participation, and the rule of law within societies.

7. Failure of the green transition

Addresses risks related to the failure to transition towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly economy. It explores challenges in achieving climate goals, reducing carbon emissions, and promoting renewable energy sources. Discusses the consequences of a failed green transition on climate change, biodiversity, and global sustainability efforts.

8. Lawless society

Discusses risks of breaking legal frameworks, enforcement mechanisms, and societal norms. It addresses issues like crime, corruption, impunity, or weak rule of law systems. Explores the implications of a lawless society on security, justice, and governance structures within communities.

9. Social division

Focuses on risks related to increasing social divisions, inequalities, and societal polarizations. It addresses factors contributing to social fragmentation, such as economic disparities, cultural tensions, or identity politics. Examines the impact of social divisions on cohesion, trust, and solidarity among different societal groups.

10. Weakened European Union

Discusses risks associated with a weakened European Union as a political and economic entity. It could explore challenges facing the EU, such as internal discord, external pressures, or shifts in regional dynamics. Analyzes the implications of a weakened EU on European integration, global influence, and regional stability.

Seriousness of risks

Evaluates and ranks 40 identified risks using a framework that considers their scope and severity. A Delphi survey prioritizes risks based on the potential for substantial harm or disruption. This analysis serves as a tool for identifying significant threats, allowing stakeholders to focus resources on mitigation and resilience building against potential catastrophic events.

The framework used in the analysis categorizes risks based on their scope, ranging from personal to pan-generational impacts. Personal risks affect individuals, while local risks impact specific regions or groups. Global risks have implications for the entire human population, while trans-generational risks affect multiple generations. Pan-generational risks have consequences across all or nearly all generations.

By considering the severity and reach of each risk, it provides insights into the potential magnitude of threats facing society. This evaluation helps decision-makers understand the gravity of different risks and prioritize their responses accordingly. By highlighting risks that have the potential for catastrophic or existential outcomes, the section underscores the importance of proactive risk management and preparedness to mitigate the most severe consequences.

Conclusions

Provides a summary and key insights from the analysis of future risks and potential developments outlined in the preceding sections. Based on the identified risks and severity, it synthesizes the main findings, implications, and recommendations for policymakers and decision-makers. This section highlights the interconnected nature of risks, emphasizing the importance of holistic foresight approaches in understanding and addressing complex challenges. It underscores the need for proactive risk management strategies, resilience-building measures, and collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of potential crises.

The conclusions discuss the role of foresight methodologies in anticipating future risks and opportunities, emphasizing the importance of staying ahead of emerging trends and disruptions. Outlines vital takeaways from the analysis, such as identifying 40 relevant future risks for the European Union and the potential pathways through which these risks could materialize. Furthermore, the conclusions stress the significance of preparedness, adaptability, and innovation in navigating uncertain futures.

Appendices

Foresight Approach

• It offers a detailed description of the research methods and foresight processes used in the study. It may provide insights into the specific methodologies, tools, and approaches to identify and analyze future risks and opportunities. Readers can expect to find a comprehensive overview of how the study was conducted and the rationale behind the chosen methodologies.

Weak Signals Used to Develop Snapshots of the Future

• It focuses on the weak signals identified through horizon scanning and other foresight methodologies. Weak signals are early indicators of future developments that will significantly impact society and policy. The section may elaborate on how these weak signals were interpreted, analyzed, and used to construct scenarios or narratives about possible future trajectories.

Results from Delphi survey

• The Delphi survey results, part of a study on future risks, provide insights into the scope and severity of various identified risks. Participants assess the potential impact and likelihood of different scenarios.