Outlines strategies to address the escalating global plastic crisis. It evaluates various policy scenarios to reduce plastic pollution, emphasizing the need for comprehensive action across the entire plastics lifecycle.

Key Findings

1. Projected Growth in Plastic Pollution:
   • Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, global plastics production is expected to increase by 70% from 435 million tonnes in 2020 to 736 million tonnes in 2040.
   • Mismanaged plastic waste could rise by 50%, and leakage into the environment could grow by 40%, leading to severe environmental and health consequences.
2. Policy Scenarios:
   • Global Ambition Scenario: This high-stringency approach combines strong international policies across all stages of the plastics lifecycle, aiming to reduce plastic leakage into the environment by 96% by 2040.
   • OECD Action Scenario: Focuses on advanced economies implementing stringent policies, including bans on single-use plastics, eco-design standards, and enhanced recycling.
   • Mixed-Stringency Scenario: Combines ambitious policies in developed countries with moderate measures in developing nations.
3. Environmental and Economic Impacts:
   • The Global Ambition Scenario could nearly eliminate mismanaged waste (97% reduction) and prevent 74 million tonnes of plastics from entering rivers and oceans annually by 2040.
   • Plastics-related greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced to 1.7 GtCO2e, down from a projected baseline of 2.8 GtCO2e.
   • While stringent policies might decrease global GDP by 0.5%, the environmental benefits far outweigh the economic costs.
4. Key Policy Pillars:
   • Curb Production and Demand: Limit plastic production through taxes, bans on single-use items, and substitute sustainable materials.
   • Design for Circularity: Promote eco-design to enhance plastic products’ durability, repairability, and recyclability.
   • Enhance Recycling: Improve collection, sorting, and recycling systems to quadruple recycling rates by 2040.
   • Close Leakage Pathways: Strengthen waste management infrastructure to prevent plastic leakage into the environment.

Recommendations

• Governments must adopt ambitious global policies targeting all stages of the plastics lifecycle.
• Innovation and waste management infrastructure investments are critical, particularly in developing countries.
• International cooperation is essential to ensure equitable implementation of policies and avoid regional disparities.

Overview

1 Towards the elimination of plastic pollution: Mapping alternative pathways

Introduces the report by providing context and objectives for addressing plastic pollution. Sets the stage for further discussions and analyses in the subsequent chapters, emphasizing the importance of coordinated efforts and strategic policy implementation to reduce plastic pollution by 2040 substantially.

1. Context and Objectives: Emphasizes the urgent need to tackle plastic pollution due to its adverse environmental impacts, including pollution, climate change, and biodiversity loss. The objective is to explore and map various pathways and strategies to eliminate plastic pollution by 2040.
2. Methodological Framework: Describes the analytical framework employed in the report, which utilizes modeling to assess different policy scenarios. This framework helps understand the implications and effectiveness of various policy combinations and their potential outcomes on plastic production, use, waste generation, and pollution.
3. Main Insights: Summarizes insights derived from the analysis, indicating that current policies are insufficient to alter existing trends in plastic waste and pollution significantly. It underscores the necessity for ambitious policy actions to create a meaningful impact in reversing plastic pollution trends.

2 Business-as-usual is unsustainable

Examines the projections and implications of continuing plastic production and consumption trends without significant policy changes. Emphasizes the unsustainability of current practices surrounding plastic use and waste management, making a strong case for urgent and robust policy reforms to avert the projected negative consequences.

1. Continued Growth in Plastic Production and Demand: Highlights that if existing practices persist, the production and demand for primary plastics will continue to rise. This trend is primarily driven by increasing economic activities and population growth, particularly in emerging economies.
2. Waste Generation Trends: Projects that plastic waste will also increase are mainly driven by short-lived plastic applications and ongoing growth in developing regions. These trends will lead to a substantial increase in the volume of plastic waste generated by 2040.
3. Mismanagement of Plastic Waste: Warns that if current policies remain unchanged, more than a hundred million tonnes of plastic waste will still be mismanaged by 2040. This mismanagement significantly contributes to environmental pollution, as much plastic will likely leak into ecosystems.
4. Adverse Consequences: Rising levels of plastic use and waste pose considerable risks to ecosystems, contribute to climate change, and threaten human health. The cumulative impact of plastic pollution exacerbates issues related to biodiversity loss and hinders global efforts towards climate mitigation.

3 Modelling policy packages to mitigate plastic pollution

Focuses on developing and analyzing various policy scenarios to reverse current trends in plastic pollution. Illustrates the critical role that well-designed and coordinated policy packages can play in mitigating plastic pollution, highlighting a range of strategies that policymakers can use to address this pressing global issue.

1. Introduction to Policy Packages: Introduces the concept of modelling policy packages to understand how different strategies can be combined to reduce plastic pollution effectively. It emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to evaluating the impacts of multiple policy instruments.
2. Policy Scenarios: Various policy scenarios are detailed, each representing different levels of ambition and approaches to tackling plastic pollution. The scenarios incorporate ten policy instruments that cover multiple stages of the plastics lifecycle, including production, use, waste management, and recycling.
3. Modelling Framework Overview: Describes the methodological framework used for projections related to plastic flows. This framework enables a comparison of the effectiveness of different policy combinations in achieving reduction targets for plastic pollution and waste.
4. Strategic Policy Instruments: The selected policy instruments are grouped into four main pillars: curbing production and demand, designing for circularity, enhancing recycling efforts, and closing leakage pathways. Each pillar is crucial in creating a comprehensive strategy to mitigate plastic pollution.
5. Potential Outcomes: Outlines how the modelling analysis reveals the potential environmental benefits of implementing these policy scenarios. It stresses that ambitious policies can significantly alter the trajectory of plastic pollution if adopted across international platforms.

4 Implications of policy scenarios with partial ambition

Examines the outcomes of implementing less ambitious policies to combat plastic pollution. It reveals the shortcomings and risks of partial measures, emphasizing that more substantial commitments and decisive actions are necessary to eliminate plastic pollution effectively.

1. Overview of Partial Ambition Scenarios: Discusses several hypothetical scenarios characterized by limited policy stringency, partial geographical coverage, and incomplete lifecycle policies. These scenarios reflect approaches that do not fully meet the necessary levels of ambition required to tackle plastic pollution effectively.
2. Projected Outcomes: The analysis reveals that while partial ambition policies can lead to some reductions in plastic use and environmental impacts compared to a business-as-usual scenario, they fall short of achieving the significant cuts needed to eliminate plastic leakage into the environment by 2040.
3. Lifecycle Impact: The scenarios illustrate that without comprehensive global measures and cohesive efforts across all stages of the plastic lifecycle, substantial amounts of plastic waste will still be mismanaged, resulting in continued leakage into natural ecosystems and persistent environmental damage.
4. Limitations of Partial Policies: Emphasizes that relying on partial ambition scenarios can create a false sense of progress. Although they may demonstrate some positive outcomes, these policies are inadequate for achieving the transformative change necessary to address plastic pollution comprehensively.
5. Need for Higher Ambition: Underscores the importance of pursuing more ambitious policy frameworks. It advocates for a holistic approach that combines stringent regulations and international cooperation to mitigate plastic pollution.

5 Implications of policy scenarios with high ambition

Focuses on the potential outcomes and benefits of implementing ambitious, integrated policy measures to combat plastic pollution effectively. Underscores the critical importance of high-ambition policies in driving meaningful changes to reduce plastic pollution and highlights the potential for positive environmental outcomes that can be achieved through coordinated action.

1. Benefits of High Ambition Policies: Highlights that ambitious and comprehensive policy packages encompass actions across all stages of the plastic lifecycle and can significantly decouple economic growth from plastic use. This decoupling is essential for reducing the overall environmental impact of plastic production and consumption.
2. Global Coverage and Stringency: It emphasizes that high-ambition scenarios must involve global coverage of policies and strong regulatory frameworks that promote circular economy principles, thereby targeting both plastics production and end-of-life management.
3. Reduction of Plastic Waste: The analysis demonstrates that if high-ambition policies are adopted, it is possible to eliminate mismanaged plastic waste by 2040. This outcome would substantially reduce plastic leakage into ecosystems, thereby mitigating the detrimental effects of plastic pollution.
4. Environmental and Economic Trade-offs: Discusses the environmental benefits of high-ambition scenarios, such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved waste management practices, and enhanced resource efficiency. However, it acknowledges that implementing such ambitious policies may require careful consideration of economic impacts and trade-offs.
5. Call for Integrated Approaches: Concludes by advocating for cohesive and integrated policy approaches that engage multiple stakeholders, including governments, businesses, and civil society, to ensure successful implementation and widespread adoption of practical measures.

6 Comparison of costs across scenarios

Analyzes the economic implications associated with various policy scenarios to mitigate plastic pollution. Compares the costs of different approaches, emphasizing the trade-offs between ambition levels and economic impacts. It highlights the importance of understanding the economic implications of various policy scenarios, underscoring that while high-ambition policies may require upfront investments, they can lead to significant long-term savings and environmental benefits, making them the more prudent in combating plastic pollution.

1. Macroeconomic Implications: Provides insights into how different policy scenarios, ranging from partial to high ambition, impact the overall economy as measured by changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It highlights that high-ambition policies may entail initial costs but can lead to long-term economic benefits through enhanced sustainability and waste management.
2. Cost-effectiveness of Policy Packages: Emphasizes that integrated policy packages that address plastic pollution across all lifecycle stages are more cost-effective than scenarios focused solely on downstream measures like waste management and recycling. A balanced approach that combines upstream and downstream policies can optimize resource allocation and reduce total costs.
3. Investment Needs: Outlines that non-OECD countries may face higher investment requirements to enhance their waste management systems and overall capacity to manage plastic pollution. This disparity underscores the need for tailored policies considering regional economic conditions and capabilities.
4. Long-term Cost Benefits: By adopting ambitious and comprehensive policies, countries can avoid higher costs associated with managing pollution and environmental damage in the future. The report indicates that delaying action could escalate economic and environmental costs.
5. Transition Costs: Discusses transitional costs in implementing new policies, which can vary significantly across regions and policy scenarios. It stresses the importance of planning for these costs to ensure smooth transitions to more sustainable practices.

7 Putting the Global Ambition into context: Challenges and priorities

Examines the key actions and considerations to implement ambitious plastic pollution policies. It explores the complex challenges facing policymakers and identifies critical priorities. It emphasizes that eliminating plastic pollution globally requires coordinated efforts across multiple areas—from capacity building and infrastructure investment to stakeholder collaboration—to overcome challenges and deliver effective policy solutions.

1. Introduction to Implementation Challenges: Acknowledges the significant challenges inherent in achieving global ambition for reducing plastic pollution. These challenges include economic, technological, and social dimensions that must be navigated to effect meaningful change.
2. Accelerating Action: Emphasizes the urgency of accelerating action to reduce plastic flows into the environment. This includes fostering eco-design practices that minimize plastic usage and promote sustainability at the design stage, thereby addressing the issue from the outset.
3. Support for Waste Management: Highlights the importance of supporting environmentally sound waste management infrastructure in all regions, particularly developing countries that may lack adequate systems to handle plastic waste. Investments in waste management capacity are critical for achieving the desired outcomes.
4. Collaborative Approaches: Stresses the need for coordinated efforts among countries, sectors, and stakeholders to limit action costs. Building partnerships and coalitions can enhance effectiveness and share best practices.
5. Financing Mechanisms: Discusses the necessity of exploring financing methods to support the implementation of ambitious policies. The investment will promote technological innovation and ensure that all nations can contribute to the global effort against plastic pollution.

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