Provides a comprehensive analysis of the critical global shifts accelerating the triple planetary climate change crisis, biodiversity loss, and pollution. Released at the 2024 High-level Political Forum, the report aims to guide policymakers and stakeholders in navigating current and future uncertainties.

Key Findings

Eight Critical Global Shifts

• Degradation of the Natural World: Human activities continue to degrade ecosystems, leading to the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• Technological Development: Rapid advancements in AI and digital technologies pose opportunities and environmental risks, such as increased demand for critical minerals.
• Resource Competition: Growing competition for natural resources, including rare earth elements and metals, fuels conflicts, and environmental degradation.
• Widening Inequalities: Economic and social inequalities are expanding, exacerbating vulnerabilities and reducing trust in institutions.
• Declining Trust in Institutions: A decline in public trust hampers effective governance and collective action on global challenges.
• Climate Change: The impacts of climate change are intensifying, with more frequent and severe weather events and long-term environmental changes.
• Pollution and Waste: Pollution levels are rising, affecting air, water, and soil quality and contributing to health problems.
• Forced Displacement: Increasing numbers of people are displaced due to conflicts and climate change, leading to significant human and environmental impacts.

Recommendations

• Adopting Foresight Tools: Advocates using foresight tools to anticipate and prepare for emerging challenges. This proactive approach can help avoid past mistakes and focus on resilient solutions.
• New Social Contract: A new social contract is recommended, engaging diverse stakeholders, including indigenous communities and youth, to ensure inclusive and equitable progress.
• Rethinking Measures of Progress: Calls for rethinking traditional measures of progress, such as GDP, and adopting indicators that reflect sustainability and well-being.
• Agile Governance: Governments and societies should introduce shorter-term targets and indicators for more agile governance and better responsiveness to emerging issues.
• Financial System Reconfiguration: Reconfiguring financial systems and rerouting capital flows towards sustainable investments can help reduce inequalities and address environmental crises.

Overview

Part 1 – The new global context

Provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of global challenges and the interconnected nature of the crises humanity faces. Depicts a world in flux, where the interplay of various crises necessitates a holistic understanding and coordinated response to safeguard planetary health and human well-being.

1. Introduction to Polycrisis: Defines “polycrisis” as multiple interconnected crises. Local issues like territorial conflicts or resource shortages can quickly escalate globally.
2. Interconnected Global Issues: Underscores the convergence of ecological, political, and economic crises. Notes that these crises amplify each other and complicate efforts to address individual issues, requiring solutions that consider broader system implications.
3. Emerging Technologies and Their Impacts: Rapid technological changes, especially in AI and digital transformation, reshape economies and societies, affecting jobs and social norms. It warns of risks alongside solutions, particularly in environmental management and societal well-being. It also highlights concerns about the demand for critical minerals for clean energy, which could harm biodiversity and resource availability.
4. Global Disruptions and Recent Events: Emphasizes how recent events like COVID-19 and the Ukraine invasion have exposed global fragility. These disruptions tested resilience, emphasizing the need for adaptive governance and societal structures. It argues that acute shocks can become long-term stressors, necessitating innovative and coordinated responses.
5. Signals of Change: Highlights the need to identify and monitor change signals, indicating emerging risks or disruptions. By doing so, governments and societies can better anticipate crises and develop mitigation strategies.
6. Call for Proactive Strategies: Advocates for a proactive approach to the complex challenges of the new global context. It urges a reevaluation of current work programs and future expectations, emphasizing the interconnected nature of risks and the need for collaborative solutions.

Part 2 – Shifts, signals and potential disruptions

Examines critical global shifts identified through a foresight exercise and change signals indicating emerging trends and potential disruptions. Provides insights into the evolving landscape, highlighting global transformative changes and their implications for planetary health and human well-being. Identifies critical global shifts, signals of emerging trends, and potential disruptions, offering a comprehensive understanding of how these dynamics reshape human and environmental interactions.

1. Critical Global Shifts

Identifies eight critical global shifts reshaping international relations, environmental management, and societal structures: the need for sustainable practices, decentralized governance, resource scarcity, advancements in AI and digital technologies, population displacements, widening inequalities, the rise of misinformation, and declining institutional trust, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

2. Signals of Change

Highlights the importance of monitoring early indicators, or signals of change, to anticipate future developments. Key examples include innovations in renewable energy, shifts in public sentiment on climate action, and emerging social movements. These signals can guide strategic decision-making and preparedness for governments and organizations.

3. Potential Disruptions

Each identified shift is associated with potential disruptions that could significantly impact planetary health and human well-being. It outlines that the scarcity of critical resources could lead to increased competition and conflict over access, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the rapid adoption of AI technologies may result in job displacement and exacerbate inequalities if not managed properly, while mass forced displacement could strain social services and infrastructure in host communities, leading to social unrest.

4. Interconnectedness of Shifts and Signals

Underscores the interconnectedness of critical shifts, signals of change, and potential disruptions, illustrating how these elements form a complex web of interactions. For instance, environmental changes can spur technological innovation, leading to social shifts or geopolitical conflicts, while economic inequalities can drive misinformation and polarization, complicating governance efforts. This complexity necessitates a holistic approach to understanding and addressing global challenges, urging stakeholders to consider the broader implications of their actions and policies, as changes in one area can trigger cascading effects in others.

5. Implications for Governance and Action

Advocates for a proactive approach to governance incorporating foresight and systems thinking, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interactions between various shifts and signals to inform more effective policies and interventions. Key recommendations include developing adaptive governance frameworks to respond to emerging challenges and uncertainties, fostering collaboration among diverse stakeholders to leverage collective intelligence and resources, and investing in research and innovation to address critical resource challenges and promote sustainable practices.

Part 3: Managing change and building resilience: A future for planetary health and human wellbeing

Outlines strategies for dealing with critical shifts and disruptions. It highlights the need for resilience in governance, community engagement, and sustainable practices for a healthier planet and improved human well-being. Stresses collaboration, inclusivity, and proactive strategies to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities for positive change.

1. Shared Values and a New Social Contract

Advocates for establishing shared values to guide collective action towards sustainability and equity. It emphasizes the need for a new social contract that includes diverse stakeholders, particularly marginalized communities and youth. This contract should prioritize inclusivity, ensuring all voices are heard in decision-making. By fostering a shared responsibility and common purpose, societies can better address the interconnected challenges of environmental degradation and social inequality.

2. Agile and Adaptive Governance

Stresses the need for agile governance that adapts to rapid changes. It calls for community engagement in decision-making to boost resilience and adaptability. Governance should promote experimenting with new ideas and learning from successes and failures to improve policies. Setting measurable environmental goals is essential to guide actions and ensure accountability.

3. Guiding Governance through Data and Knowledge

Emphasizes the importance of data, information, and knowledge in guiding governance decisions, recommending developing robust systems for monitoring environmental and social indicators to provide valuable insights into policy effectiveness. It also stresses making data accessible to all stakeholders to empower communities and facilitate informed decision-making. Furthermore, integrating scientific knowledge with local and traditional knowledge is a crucial strategy to enhance understanding of complex systems and improve responses to challenges.

4. Building Resilience at Multiple Levels

Emphasizes the need to build resilience at multiple levels—individual, community, national, and global—by encouraging local initiatives and networks to enhance community resilience through collaboration and resource sharing and by fostering global cooperation to address challenges through coordinated efforts across nations and sectors. Strengthening international partnerships and frameworks can facilitate collective action and resource mobilization.

5. Hope and Opportunities for Change

Despite the challenges outlined in the report, there are signs of hope and opportunities for positive change, such as the unprecedented expansion of renewable energy sources, which are projected to overtake coal as the largest source of global electricity generation by 2025. Additionally, adopting new frameworks like the Global Biodiversity Framework and the High Seas Treaty aims to protect critical ecosystems and promote sustainable practices. These developments suggest that while significant challenges remain, there is potential for transformative change towards a more sustainable and equitable future.

18 Signals of Change

1 – Ancient Microbes Hidden in Thawing Arctic Permafrost

• The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, causing thawing permafrost to release ancient microbes and pathogens. This poses risks such as increased methane emissions, harmful bacteria, and viruses, which could impact ecosystems, biodiversity, and human health. The release of ancient viruses could lead to global health emergencies, highlighting the need to monitor climate change’s effects on permafrost and its implications for planetary and human well-being.

2 – New Emerging Zoonotic Diseases

• Rising zoonotic disease risks due to climate change and environmental degradation highlight the need for better surveillance and prevention. Increased interactions between wildlife, livestock, and humans, driven by deforestation and urbanization, could lead to more pandemics by 2050. Coordinated global efforts are essential to address these interconnected health threats.

3 – Antimicrobial Resistance Approaching Critical Levels

• Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant threat, potentially causing 10 million deaths annually by 2050. Key drivers include antibiotic overuse, poor infection prevention, and pollution. AMR complicates treatments, increases medical costs, and undermines surgeries and chronic disease care. A global response with improved surveillance, infection prevention, new antimicrobials, public awareness, and a One Health approach is essential to protect public health and maintain effective treatments.

4 – Unforeseen Impacts of Harmful Chemicals and Materials

• Harmful chemicals from agriculture, industry, and domestic products pose health and environmental risks, especially to vulnerable groups. They cause immune, cognitive, and reproductive issues. The combined effects of multiple chemicals are poorly understood, complicating risk assessments. Chemical pollution disrupts ecosystems and reduces biodiversity. Calls for better regulation, monitoring, research, and safer, sustainable practices.

5 – Rapid Expansion of Space Activity and Orbital Space Debris

• Highlights the rapid growth of the space industry, projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2040, and the environmental concerns related to orbital debris. Increasing satellite launches, space tourism, and resource extraction escalate space debris, risking operational satellites and future missions. Environmental impacts include high-warming rocket emissions, atmospheric disruption from re-entering debris, and light pollution affecting astronomy and ecosystems. This underscores the urgent need for effective monitoring and regulations to manage space activities sustainably.

6 – Emerging Mindset of Continuous Learning and ‘Exnovation’

• Discusses the importance of continuous learning and exnovation for innovation and sustainability. It highlights global efforts to phase out harmful practices, such as India’s Lifestyle for Environment campaign, and emphasizes a just transition to ensure equity and inclusivity in sustainable practices. Advocates for a cultural shift towards responsible consumption and production to achieve sustainability.

7 – Deployment of Solar Radiation Modification

• Discusses Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) as a potential climate change mitigation strategy. SRM aims to reflect sunlight into space to cool the Earth, inspired by the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. While SRM could quickly counteract climate change and support emissions reduction, it has significant environmental, ethical, and governance challenges. Emphasizes the need for thorough research and governance frameworks for responsible SRM deployment.

8 – Autonomous and Artificial Intelligence Weapons Systems

• The rise of AI-powered autonomous weapons poses significant challenges to warfare and global security, including accountability, ethics, and the risk of an arms race. The lack of human oversight in critical decisions may lead to unintended consequences and civilian casualties. There is a pressing need for international dialogue and regulations to ensure their responsible use and development.

9 – New Technologies Amplify Risks of Biological Agents Misuse

• Technological advancements in synthetic biology, genomic technologies, and AI increase the risk of biological agent misuse, posing dual-use threats. Emerging threats like AI-controlled nano-aerial vehicles necessitate updated regulations. The COVID-19 pandemic underscores global vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for comprehensive risk assessments and international cooperation to mitigate biological warfare risks.

10 – Uninhabitable Spaces

• Discusses the increasing uninhabitability of areas due to extreme environmental and socio-political factors like climate change, natural disasters, pollution, and conflict. It emphasizes the economic and social challenges of forced displacement. It highlights the need for adaptive strategies, including relocation planning, resilient infrastructure, and addressing climate change causes to ensure safety and resilience.

11 – Privatized Micro-Environmentalism

• Privatized micro-environmentalism offers affluent individuals exclusive access to clean air, water, and nature-based amenities, raising concerns about environmental justice and socioeconomic inequality. This trend risks commodifying healthy ecosystems and eroding collective environmental responsibility. Inclusive policies are needed to ensure equitable access to natural resources and promote shared conservation efforts.

12 – Uninsurable Future

• Climate change makes it increasingly difficult for the insurance industry to cover high-risk areas, leading to higher premiums, reduced coverage, or withdrawal of services. This vulnerability can impact financial stability and increase mortgage defaults, necessitating government intervention and adaptive strategies like infrastructure improvements, sustainable land use, and community preparedness.

13 – Decisions Increasingly Detached from Scientific Evidence

• The trend of ignoring scientific evidence in decision-making, driven by populist rhetoric and political pressures, leads to poor policies on climate change, public health, and environmental protection, eroding trust in institutions and increasing skepticism towards scientific authorities. Advocates reintegrating scientific evidence into decision-making, promoting data-driven policies, enhancing public understanding of science, and fostering collaboration between scientists and policymakers.

14 – Eco-Anxiety – An Emerging Crisis Hidden in Plain Sight

• Eco-anxiety, particularly among younger generations, is a significant mental health issue driven by environmental concerns and climate crisis. It leads to feelings of helplessness, depression, and anxiety, threatening social cohesion and community resilience. Addressing it requires mental health resources, community engagement, and educational initiatives to promote resilience and positive environmental actions.

15 – Surging Fossil Fuel Subsidies

• A record US$7 trillion increase in fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 undermines climate goals by encouraging fossil fuel use and hindering clean energy efforts. Urgent reform is needed to phase out these subsidies, redirect investments to renewables, and align policies with climate objectives for a low-carbon economy.

16 – Escalating Risks of Corruption in Carbon Offsetting

• Concerns about corruption and accountability in carbon offsetting markets highlight the need for robust regulations and oversight to ensure credible climate action. With the market projected to grow significantly, measures such as independent oversight, consulting Indigenous communities, and focusing on long-term carbon removal are essential.

17 – New Tools for Rerouting Global Financial Flows

• Redirecting finances to sustainable investments can transform global financial systems to address environmental and social challenges. Key tools include green bonds and impact investing, supported by regulations and ESG criteria, to mobilize resources for climate action and sustainable development.

18 – Local, Network-Driven Resilience

• Local communities are increasingly addressing environmental and social challenges through collaboration and grassroots initiatives. Strong local leadership leverages local knowledge and resources for innovative solutions, enhancing resilience through diverse actors and social support. Integrating traditional knowledge ensures relevant solutions, and local governance connects community initiatives with national policies, emphasizing empowerment and inclusive decision-making despite resource limitations.

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