Explores how climate change affects NATO’s security and operations. Part of NATO’s broader Climate Change and Security Action Plan from the 2021 Brussels Summit, the report highlights the profound impact on global security and NATO’s operations, stressing the need for adaptation and resilience. It informs NATO’s climate security approach and guides future actions to address climate-related risks.

Key Findings

Impact on Operational Domains

• Assesses the effects of climate change across NATO’s operational domains: land, sea, air, space, and cyber. It highlights how climate-induced changes, such as extreme weather events, will likely impact military equipment, weapon systems, and installations, leading to higher maintenance costs and safety risks for personnel.

Indirect Security Impacts

• Climate change is identified as a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates existing security challenges. Indirect impacts include climate-induced instability, large-scale population movements, and disruptions of global supply chains, which can contribute to higher levels of conflict and instability.

Regional Focus

• The High North (Arctic) is a particular focus, with the region experiencing warming at about four times the global average. This has profound implications for local communities, environmental conditions, and regional security.

Climate Change and Adversaries

• Analyzes how climate change impacts NATO’s potential adversaries and strategic competitors. For example, it notes that Russia faces significant climate-related challenges, such as permafrost thaw and increased flooding, which could heighten socio-political and economic stresses.

Resilience and Civil Preparedness

• Underscores the importance of integrating climate considerations into national security strategies. It discusses the need for enhanced civil-military cooperation and improved civil emergency response capabilities to handle increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Disaster Response

• Highlights the growing reliance on military support for disaster response due to the increasing severity of climate-related events. Examples include military deployments for wildfire management in Canada and the U.S. and flood response in Slovenia.

Recommendations

Strengthen Governance

• Calls for more robust governance frameworks to manage the risks posed by climate change, emphasizing the need for comprehensive risk assessments and proactive adaptation measures.

Enhance Operational Resilience

• NATO is urged to enhance the resilience of its operations and infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate change, including developing rapid response structures beyond traditional military capacities.

Promote International Cooperation

• Stresses the importance of international cooperation to address the global nature of climate risks, advocating for shared best practices and collaborative efforts to build resilience.

Overview

Impact of Climate Change on NATO

Discusses the evolving security environment due to climate change. It emphasizes the urgency of addressing the root causes of climate change and highlights the increasing speed and scale at which the climate crisis unfolds. It mentions that 2023 was the hottest year, with global temperatures reaching 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels.

NATO’s response includes adapting its deterrence and defense posture to address security challenges posed by climate change, such as extreme heat, floods, and wildfires. The Alliance aims to reduce fossil fuel dependence, adapt to the energy transition, and enhance operational effectiveness in the face of climate-related challenges.

Additionally, NATO’s Climate Change and Security Action Plan agreed upon at the 2021 Brussels Summit, outlines commitments to build awareness of climate impacts on security, adapt military capabilities and societal resilience, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and integrate climate change into outreach efforts with partners.

The Changing Climate

Underscores the rapid and significant changes in the global climate, with 2023 being recorded as the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization reported that global average near-surface temperatures reached 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. This highlights the urgency of addressing the root causes of climate change and the need for proactive measures to mitigate its impacts.

NATO’s Evolving Security Environment

NATO recognizes the increasing interaction between climate change and traditional security risks, necessitating adaptation to the new security reality. The Alliance aims to enhance its deterrence and defense posture to address the challenges posed by climate change, such as extreme weather events and environmental degradation. NATO’s commitment to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security is reflected in its strategic initiatives and operational planning.

Climate Change Impacts on NATO’s Potential Adversaries and Strategic Competitors

Highlights that climate change affects NATO Allies, potential adversaries, and strategic competitors like Russia and China. The changing climate has observable effects on regions such as Russia’s Arctic and agricultural zones, leading to permafrost thaw, increased flooding, and more frequent natural disasters. Understanding these actors’ adaptive capacity and responses to a warming world is crucial for NATO’s security and defense planning.

NATO’s and Allies’ Military Installations and Assets

Examines NATO’s military installations and assets’ vulnerability to climate-related risks. It evaluates the performance of submarines, naval helicopters, and military transport planes in a changing climate. The report emphasizes the importance of incorporating sustainable design principles in military infrastructure and platform acquisition to enhance operational effectiveness in future operating environments.

NATO’s Missions and Operations

Discusses the impact of climate change on NATO’s missions and operations, including case studies on NATO’s presence in Kosovo, the Rovajärvi shooting and training area in Finland, and the North Warning System. It assesses the implications of climate change on NATO’s operational domains—land, sea, air, space, and cyber—and highlights the escalating effects of climate change on resilience commitments and the global security environment. NATO aims to adapt its capabilities and resilience to ensure operational effectiveness amidst climate-related challenges.

Resilience and Civil Preparedness

NATO emphasizes the importance of resilience and civil preparedness in the face of climate change impacts. The Alliance seeks to enhance disaster response capabilities and integrate climate considerations into planning, training, and exercising activities. By building societal resilience and preparedness, NATO aims to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on security and ensure continuity of operations in challenging environments.

Climate Change on Five Operating Domains

Explores the specific effects of climate change on NATO’s operational domains: maritime, land, air, space, and cyber.

Maritime Operating Domain

Climate change challenges naval operations. Changes in air and ocean temperatures affect vessel performance—variations in salinity, wind speed, and precipitation impact navigation. Reduced sea ice complicates Arctic operations and security. Altered marine ecosystems affect fisheries protection and monitoring. Disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could disrupt ocean currents, climate patterns, and sea conditions.

Land Operating Domain

Climate change affects military operations in the land domain through rising temperatures, changing precipitation, and thawing permafrost. These lead to wildfires, flooding, extreme weather, and unstable installations, impacting training, logistics, and infrastructure. Adapting practices, design, and planning to these risks is crucial for effectiveness.

Air Operating Domain

Climate change impacts aircraft performance, safety, and infrastructure. Higher temperatures reduce air density, affecting lift and engine efficiency, especially during take-off and landing. Increased turbulence and severe weather pose risks to flight operations. Air bases face threats from extreme weather, emphasizing the need for climate-resilient design and planning. Adapting requires comprehensive airspace management, aircraft maintenance, and mission planning.

Space Operating Domain

Climate change influences satellite operations, communication systems, and surveillance. Storms can disrupt satellite communication and navigation. Solar flares and geomagnetic storms also pose risks to satellites. Coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and flooding threaten ground infrastructure like launch sites. Ensuring resilience against these climate-related risks is crucial for maintaining capabilities.

Cyber Operating Domain

Climate change can disrupt critical infrastructure, increase cybersecurity risks during disasters, and necessitate strong defense for NATO’s networks. Extreme weather, power outages, and infrastructure damage highlight the need for climate resilience in cyber defense. Adapting to evolving threats requires proactive measures in cybersecurity, information sharing, and incident response.

Climate Impact Assessment of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Provides insights into the environmental and climate-related consequences of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Overall, the Climate Impact Assessment of Russia’s War Against Ukraine underscores the interconnectedness between military conflicts, environmental degradation, and climate change. It emphasizes the importance of considering environmental factors in conflict resolution, post-war reconstruction, and long-term sustainability efforts.

Environmental Devastation

Underlines that Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has caused significant environmental damage and climate impacts. The conflict has led to considerable CO2e releases due to wildfires from attacks on oil facilities and other hostile activities. Destruction of fields and forests has added to emissions and reduced natural carbon sinks. Airspace restrictions over Ukraine and Russia have also increased the aviation sector’s carbon footprint.

Financial Costs and Climate Damage

The conflict has caused significant financial costs and climate damage, with over 175 million tons of CO2e released in the first 24 months. Climate damage exceeds USD 32 billion, highlighting the conflict’s environmental impact. Russia’s natural gas flaring has also increased carbon emissions and environmental harm.

Post-War Reconstruction and Emissions

Highlights that post-war reconstruction in Ukraine will significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from concrete and cement production. Rebuilding infrastructure and buildings in the hardest-hit areas will generate substantial emissions. It is crucial to align these efforts with green practices to support Ukraine’s economic recovery and environmental security.

International Cooperation and Green Recovery

The assessment stresses the need for global cooperation to achieve Ukraine’s sustainable and eco-friendly recovery. Critical efforts include green reconstruction, emission reduction, and climate resilience to address the conflict’s environmental impacts and ensure long-term sustainability. The report emphasizes a shared vision for green recovery, focusing on environmental protection and sustainable development.