Provides an overview of Australia’s vulnerabilities to climate change and identifies significant physical climate risks across various sectors. Released by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water, it is a foundational document intended to guide national-level responses to climate risks.

Key Findings

1. Significant Risks Identified: Identifies 56 nationally significant physical climate risks across seven systems, including the economy, health, and primary industries. These risks highlight the vulnerability of Australian businesses and sovereign capabilities to extreme climate events and shifting climatic patterns.
2. Priority Risks for Further Analysis: From the 56 identified risks, a subset of 11 priority risks has been selected for further analysis in a subsequent “Second Pass” assessment. This will involve detailed technical analysis and stakeholder engagement to assess impacts and opportunities up to 2100.
3. Sectoral Exposure: Highlights that sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and finance are highly exposed to physical climate risks. Businesses in these sectors are encouraged to align their risk assessments with the National Climate Risk Assessment to build resilience and secure investor confidence.
4. Climate Scenarios: Examines risks over 20 years centered on 2020 and medium (2050) and long-term (2090) horizons. It considers various global warming scenarios but excludes more extreme scenarios like a 4°C increase by 2090 due to current scientific evidence.
5. Strategic Framework: The findings are an evidence-based foundation for government, industry, and communities to strategize and implement adaptation measures. The upcoming National Adaptation Plan will address these findings by establishing a framework for addressing nationally significant climate risks.

Overview

Risk Assessment Design and Method

Outlines the methodology used in the National Climate Risk Assessment’s first pass. It emphasizes that climate risk is determined by interacting with four key components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response. The assessment identifies, analyzes, and prioritizes national climate risks, enabling informed decision-making and proactive adaptation strategies. It employs a systematic approach, incorporating qualitative and quantitative methods in subsequent assessments to comprehensively understand Australia’s climate risks.

• Hazards refer to potential events or trends (e.g., bushfires, floods) that can cause harm to health, property, and ecosystems.
• Exposure is the presence of people, infrastructure, and resources that these hazards could adversely affect.
• Vulnerability encompasses the predisposition to be harmed, influenced by factors like socio-economic status and adaptive capacity.
• Climate risk is defined as the probability of a hazard occurring and its impact, highlighting that even low-probability events can pose significant risks if their consequences are severe.

First pass risk assessment

Details Australia’s inaugural national-level climate change risk evaluation focuses on safeguarding societal values. This qualitative assessment identifies how climate change threatens vital aspects of Australian life, both now and in the future. It aims to provide a shared understanding of significant climate risks to inform national adaptation and resilience strategies.

• The assessment involved collaboration with over 250 stakeholders, including government, non-government organizations, industry, academia, and First Nations peoples, through a series of workshops.
• It reviewed climate risks across eight systems of national importance: Defence and national security, Economy, trade and finance, Health and social support, Infrastructure and built environment, Natural environment, Primary industries and food, and Regional and remote communities.
• The first pass assessment is a foundational step in understanding climate risks, setting the stage for further analysis and prioritization in subsequent assessments.

Second pass assessment risks

Delineates the next phase of the National Climate Risk Assessment. This phase conducts a detailed analysis of 11 priority risks identified in the first pass assessment. It aims to deepen understanding of climate change’s impact on these risks by examining hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and response. This thorough approach is crucial for fully grasping climate risks and shaping effective adaptation strategies.

• The second pass assessment will utilize qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the selected risks, providing insights into climate projections, hazard data, and socio-economic scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090 under different global warming scenarios.
• It will explore complex interdependencies and cascading risks across multiple systems, recognizing that climate risks often interact and compound one another.
• The outcomes will include datasets, visualizations, and maps to inform potential adaptation responses. This will ensure the analysis is tailored to support decision-making across all government, industry, and community levels.

Nationally significant climate risks

Presents an overview of 56 climate risks identified across seven critical systems during the first pass assessment. It categorizes these risks and highlights their potential impacts on Australian life. This section emphasizes the crucial need for a comprehensive understanding of climate risks to inform national adaptation strategies and bolster resilience across Australia.

• The identified risks span multiple systems, including the natural environment, economy, health, and infrastructure, reflecting the interconnected nature of climate impacts.
• Each risk is assessed based on its severity, potential consequences, and likelihood of occurrence, focusing on understanding how these risks may evolve under different climate scenarios.
• Emphasizes the importance of recognizing cross-system risks. A risk in one area can have cascading effects on others, necessitating a holistic approach to risk management and adaptation.
• Provides detailed descriptions of each risk, including insights from scientific literature and expert consultations to establish concern levels and prioritize risks for further analysis.

Defence and National Security

Underscores climate change’s risks to Australia’s defense and national security systems. It highlights concerns such as extreme weather events’ impact on military operations, personnel health, and disaster response capabilities. It underscores the interconnections between climate risks and national security, including how climate-induced migration and resource scarcity may spark geopolitical tensions and challenge domestic stability.

Economy, Trade and Finance

Highlights the economic ramifications of climate risks, including potential trade and financial systems disruptions. It explores how extreme weather impacts supply chains, economic productivity, and financial market stability. The assessment pinpoints specific vulnerabilities in critical industries and stresses the importance of adaptive strategies to minimize economic losses and bolster resilience in climate change.

Health and Social Support

Examines the risks to public health and social support systems due to climate change. It highlights the potential for increased health issues related to heat waves, air quality, and the spread of diseases. Additionally, it addresses the strain on social support services as communities face climate-related challenges, emphasizing the importance of integrating health considerations into climate adaptation planning to protect vulnerable populations.

Infrastructure and Built Environment

Traces the risks to infrastructure and the built environment from climate change impacts such as flooding, extreme heat, and sea-level rise. It discusses the potential for damage to critical infrastructure, including transportation, utilities, and housing, which can disrupt essential services. The assessment stresses the need for resilient infrastructure planning and investment to withstand future climate challenges.

Natural Environment

Focuses on the risks to Australia’s natural environments and ecosystems due to climate change. It highlights concerns such as habitat loss, species extinction, and the degradation of ecosystem services that support biodiversity and human well-being. It emphasizes the interconnectedness of natural systems and the importance of conservation and sustainable management practices to mitigate these risks.

Primary Industries and Food

Addresses the risks of climate change to primary industries, including agriculture, fisheries, and forestry. It discusses how changing weather patterns, extreme events, and resource scarcity can impact food production and security. The assessment highlights the need for adaptive practices in primary industries to enhance resilience and ensure sustainable food systems in the face of climate challenges.

Regional and Remote Communities

Covers the specific climate risks faced by regional and remote communities may be more vulnerable due to their geographic isolation and reliance on natural resources. It discusses issues such as water scarcity, the economic viability of local industries, and social cohesion challenges. It stresses the importance of tailored adaptation strategies to support these communities in building resilience against climate impacts.

First Nations climate risks

Addresses the unique and significant impacts of climate change on First Nations communities in Australia. It emphasizes recognizing and incorporating First Nations values, knowledge, and cultural practices in understanding and responding to climate risks. Overall, this section highlights the necessity of integrating First Nations knowledge and values into climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies to address the challenges climate change poses on these communities effectively.

• Cumulative Impacts: Highlights that First Nations communities are experiencing multiple and interconnected impacts from climate change, which affect their land, water, health, and cultural practices. These impacts can exacerbate existing inequalities and vulnerabilities.
• Caring for Country: Underscores the critical role of First Nations peoples in environmental stewardship and sustainable management of natural resources. Their deep connection to the land and waters provides valuable insights for adaptation strategies.
• Community Engagement: The assessment process involves directly engaging First Nations stakeholders, including workshops exploring climate risks and governance models for adaptation planning. This participatory approach is essential for understanding diverse perspectives and experiences.
• Future Actions: Outlines plans for ongoing assessments of climate risks specific to First Nations communities, focusing on prioritizing significant risks and developing adaptation actions. It emphasizes the need for policies that respect and incorporate First Nations perspectives.
• Interconnected Risks: The analysis recognizes the overlap of climate risks across various systems, indicating that the impacts on First Nations communities are not isolated but interconnected with broader national climate risks.

Next steps

Outlines future actions and plans following Australia’s first pass assessment of climate risks. It emphasizes the importance of ongoing evaluation and adaptation to address identified risks effectively. It presents a proactive approach to managing climate risks, highlighting the need for continuous assessment, stakeholder collaboration, and developing a robust National Adaptation Plan to guide future actions.

• Second Pass Assessment: Indicates that a second pass assessment will be conducted to analyze further the 11 priority risks identified in the first pass. This will involve a more detailed examination of these risks, including their potential impacts and the effectiveness of current management strategies.
• National Adaptation Plan: Highlights the development of a National Adaptation Plan, the findings of which will inform the risk assessments. This plan provides a comprehensive framework for addressing climate risks across various sectors and communities.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Stresses the importance of continued engagement with stakeholders, including government agencies, industry representatives, and First Nations communities. Collaborative efforts will be essential for implementing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring that diverse perspectives are considered.
• Monitoring and Review: An emphasis will be placed on monitoring climate risks and the effectiveness of adaptation measures over time. This ongoing review process will help refine strategies and ensure they remain relevant in changing climate conditions.
• Capacity Building: Mentions the need for capacity building within communities and organizations to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity in response to climate change.

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