Highlights key trends and policy developments anticipated for the year, emphasizing the growing complexity of global migration dynamics and their intersection with geopolitics, security, and labor markets.

Key Migration Trends for 2024

1. Record Displacement Levels: Ongoing wars and conflicts, such as in Ukraine and other regions, are expected to drive unprecedented levels of forced displacement globally.
2. Geopolitics and Migration: The intertwining of migration with geopolitical tensions will remain a defining feature, with conflicts, military coups, and crises influencing migration flows.
3. Securitization of Migration: Governments are expected to continue tightening border controls, repatriation policies, and external asylum processing to manage irregular migration.
4. Secondary Movements: As displaced populations seek better opportunities or safety, a rise in secondary migration flows within regions like Europe is anticipated.
5. Migrants in Crisis Countries: Increasing numbers of migrants will likely be stranded in countries facing economic or political instability.

Migration Policy Developments

• EU Migration Policies:
  • The European Union will focus on external asylum processing, including partnerships with third countries like Albania and Rwanda.
  • Visa policy changes are expected to reduce irregular arrivals.
  • Labour migration policies will expand through initiatives like the EU Talent Pool to address skill shortages.
• Labour Migration: Europe is witnessing the “coming of age” of labor migration, with efforts to attract skilled workers from outside the EU.
• Integration of Ukrainians: Economic integration under temporary protection will remain a priority, with goals for higher employment rates in sectors like healthcare.

Election Year Dynamics

Migration is expected to be pivotal in domestic and regional election campaigns across Europe and beyond. Governments may adopt quick policy fixes while opposition parties leverage migration-related issues to gain support.

Regional Highlights

• In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, displacement due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a critical issue. The debate over temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees will intensify.
• Central Asia is experiencing an “immigration dividend” from skilled Russian migrants fleeing instability while the EU continues to attract labor migrants from the region.

Challenges Ahead

Underscores the need for cooperative and informed responses to tackle complex challenges such as rising displacement, irregular migration flows, and the integration of migrants into host societies. It emphasizes that addressing these issues requires balancing humanitarian needs, security concerns, and economic priorities.

Overview

Ten migration issues to look out for in 2024

Outlines several key themes and challenges related to migration that will shape the landscape in the coming year. It paints a complex picture of the migration landscape 2024, emphasizing the need for coordinated and compassionate responses to the challenges posed by displacement and migration pressures.

1. Record Displacement: Indicates that forcibly displaced persons have reached 114 million globally – an all-time high. This surge stems from armed conflicts, political instability, and humanitarian crises, with the trend expected to continue as people flee violence and persecution.
2. Geopolitical Influences: Geopolitical rivalries between major powers like the US, Russia, and China significantly impact migration patterns. Regional conflicts drive displacement while affecting international cooperation on migration issues. These tensions will continue influencing migration policies in 2024.
3. Election Year Dynamics: Migration will be a key political issue in 2024’s elections. In Europe, populist and right-wing parties may gain support by focusing on irregular migration concerns, while governments will aim to demonstrate effective migration management to appeal to voters.
4. Securitization of Migration: Examines how governments increasingly prioritize security in migration policies, leading to stricter border controls and surveillance. It cautions that these measures may reduce protection for displaced populations.
5. Asylum Policies: Examines shifts toward external asylum processing, where applications are assessed in third countries. This raises concerns about refugee rights and fair procedures, requiring careful policy consideration to maintain protection standards.
6. Economic and Environmental Drivers: Economic instability, natural disasters, and climate change drive migration patterns. Deteriorating conditions and lack of opportunities force people to leave their homes, with voluntary and forced migration likely increasing as people seek better living conditions.
7. International Cooperation: Stresses the importance of international cooperation in addressing migration challenges. Strained relationships with key countries of origin and transit can hinder collaborative efforts to manage migration flows effectively. It calls for renewed dialogue and partnerships to address the root causes of migration and ensure migrants’ rights are respected.
8. Labour Migration Policies: Labor migration policies are vital for future governance, addressing workforce shortages and enabling legal migration channels while protecting migrant workers’ rights and meeting host countries’ needs.
9. Impact of Domestic Policies: Domestic migration policies, particularly in the US, may affect global stability through measures like aid-linked immigration restrictions. This highlights the need to consider how national policies impact international migration.
10. Focus on Vulnerable Populations: Emphasizes protecting vulnerable migrant populations, such as refugees, women, and children, through policies ensuring access to essential services and safe migration pathways. This protection serves both humanitarian needs and promotes stability in host countries.

Focus regions

Outlines key areas that are expected to influence migration trends in 2024 significantly. It underscores the importance of understanding these focus regions’ specific dynamics and challenges to develop effective migration policies and responses in 2024.

1. Ukraine: Continues driving mass displacement, with millions seeking refuge abroad. The situation remains critical, with continued displacement expected. The EU’s refugee response is a key test case for future crisis management.
2. Middle East: Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen drive complex migration patterns in the Middle East, creating large refugee populations and internal displacement. The volatile situation suggests continued migration pressures as people seek safety.
3. Africa: Conflicts, instability, and economic challenges drive increased migration, particularly from the Sahel and Horn regions, where violence causes internal displacement and migration to Europe. EU-African cooperation remains key for managing these flows.
4. South Asia: Identifies South Asia as facing significant migration pressures due to economic instability, climate change, and political unrest. Countries like Afghanistan, which has experienced ongoing conflict and humanitarian crises, are likely to see continued outflows of migrants seeking better opportunities and safety.
5. Latin America: Notes significant migration from Latin America due to economic hardship, violence, and political instability, particularly from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Honduras. As migrants continue seeking refuge in neighboring countries and the US, regional cooperation is needed to address root causes.
6. Southeast Asia: Notes that Southeast Asia is experiencing increasing migration due to economic disparities, environmental challenges, and political instability. Countries in this region face voluntary and forced migration pressures, with many individuals seeking better living conditions and opportunities abroad.
7. Western Balkans: The Western Balkans remain a critical transit region for migrants attempting to reach Europe. It highlights the challenges countries face in this region, including limited resources and political instability, which complicate their ability to manage migration flows effectively.
8. Central Asia: Points to Central Asia as experiencing emigration and immigration pressures. Economic opportunities and political stability in neighboring countries may influence migration patterns, with individuals seeking better prospects abroad.
9. Russia and Eastern Europe: Discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and conflicts in Russia and Eastern Europe on migration trends. The situation in Ukraine and Russia’s actions in the region are expected to have significant implications for migration flows, particularly as people seek safety and stability.
10. Global Trends: Emphasizes that international factors, including economic conditions, climate change, and geopolitical dynamics, influence migration trends. The interconnectedness of these issues means that developments in one region can have ripple effects on migration patterns worldwide.

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