Forecasting Covid-19’s Course

COVID | Foresight

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Publication Date

Page Number

14

Link to Report

View Report

Download

Download

Authors

Commentary by the CSIS Senior VP on the pandemic as a “history-altering event,” with no “V-shaped recovery for major economies.” Compares three scenarios based on a variety of variables: number of waves, vaccine availability, availability of therapeutics, vaccine timeline, state of the global health system, economic recovery, development of global trade relations and looks at how it will affect global leadership and social stability.

Three scenarios:

  • Best Case: early 2021 vaccine, U-shaped recovery, EU and US as leaders, etc.
  • Mixed Case: fall 2021 vaccine, uneven recovery, China as leader, etc.
  • Worst Case: 5-10 year vaccine timeline, collapse of global trade, no global leadership, etc.

 

Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law
It is an independent research institute committed to the study and promotion of the rule of law throughout the world, defining and putting it into practice as a universal and…

German Institute for Global Area Studies
Development, Development and Migration, Development Finance, Economic Policy, Geopolitics
It is an independent social science research institute. It analyzes political, social, and economic developments in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, and links this knowledge to questions…

McKinsey Global Institute
Business, Economics, Global Economy, Policy Advising
The research arm of McKinsey focused on business and economics, providing fact-based insights to aid management and policy decisions. Aims to provide independent research and analysis, and its work is…