Forecasting Covid-19’s Course

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Commentary by the CSIS Senior VP on the pandemic as a “history-altering event,” with no “V-shaped recovery for major economies.” Compares three scenarios based on a variety of variables: number of waves, vaccine availability, availability of therapeutics, vaccine timeline, state of the global health system, economic recovery, development of global trade relations and looks at how it will affect global leadership and social stability.

Three scenarios:

  • Best Case: early 2021 vaccine, U-shaped recovery, EU and US as leaders, etc.
  • Mixed Case: fall 2021 vaccine, uneven recovery, China as leader, etc.
  • Worst Case: 5-10 year vaccine timeline, collapse of global trade, no global leadership, etc.


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