COVID-19: Global trade and supply chains after the pandemic

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This is a well-organized report from an independent consultant to the IISS .  The Institute provides information and analysis, builds networks, and seeks to influence security policy globally.

The core messages of this report are:

  •  COVID-19 resulted in an unprecedented dislocation of international trade and supply chains.
  • The World Trade Organization expects international commerce to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020.
  • Global supply chains have been permanently changed; China will remain a key player that some countries will never decouple from.
  • Localization and regionalization of strategic products is likely and will be costly for the end-consumer.
  • Illicit trade has continued during COVID-19, chiefly affecting medical products, requiring a multilateral policy response.