Provides a comprehensive overview of the most pressing threats to U.S. national security over the next year. The Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community reflecting the IC’s collective insights is structured to inform policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel. It underscores the complex and interwoven nature of global threats, requiring vigilant monitoring and a coordinated response from the IC to protect national security interests. Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community.

Overview

STATE ACTORS

China

China aspires to be a global leading power in East Asia. President Xi Jinping aims to assert China’s influence, challenging the U.S. and promoting its authoritarian norms. This includes pushing for Taiwan’s unification, which conflicts with U.S. interests. Despite economic challenges, China focuses on key sectors to lessen foreign tech dependence and advance military modernization. It perceives U.S. actions as attempts to hinder its rise. While facing domestic issues like economic slowdown, China’s aggressive strategies have sparked resistance, impeding its tech-driven economic and military growth.

• The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue challenging U.S. influence, driving wedges between the U.S. and its partners, and promoting global norms favoring its authoritarian system.

Russia

Portrays Russia as a threat to the U.S., seeking global leverage and challenging the international order through aggression, notably against Ukraine. It points out Russia’s alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea to strengthen defense and economy, posing challenges to the West. Russia’s actions, like cyber operations, disinformation, and military interventions, aim to undermine U.S. influence, weaken Western alliances, and assert dominance.

• The IC assesses that Russia does not want a direct military conflict with the U.S. and NATO but remains a significant threat due to its nuclear capabilities and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Iran

Identifies Iran as a regional threat destabilizing the Middle East through activities like supporting proxy groups and involvement in conflicts. It underscores Iran’s aggressive tactics, including supporting militias and pursuing nuclear capabilities, which pose risks to U.S. allies and regional stability. The report emphasizes Iran’s disruptive behavior and efforts to expand its influence, challenging U.S. interests.

• Iran continues to support proxy groups in the Middle East but did not orchestrate or have foreknowledge of the Hamas attacks on October 7.
• The IC highlights Iran’s potential to influence U.S. elections and its ongoing regional activities.

North Korea

North Korea’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and provocative actions like missile tests threaten regional security and increase tensions. This underscores the challenges in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and necessitates continued diplomacy to manage these risks.

• North Korea is expected to continue expanding its nuclear program and seek to achieve strategic dominance.
• The IC notes the importance of understanding the nature of assistance North Korea receives from other states, particularly Russia.

Conflicts and Fragility

Global conflicts and instability significantly undermine U.S. national security and allies. Intensified global power competition can disrupt trade, increase energy costs, and create economic vulnerabilities. For instance, the Gaza conflict led to tourism revenue losses in Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, while Ukrainian food export disruptions caused global food price hikes. These conflicts can have wide-ranging impacts, including the risk of escalation into more significant conflicts.

Gaza Conflict

• Highlights the ongoing conflict in Gaza as an example of regional turmoil with potential spillover effects into more significant, more dangerous conflicts. It emphasizes the interconnected nature of conflicts and their implications for neighboring countries and the world.

Potential Interstate Conflict

• Discusses the risk of international interstate conflicts posing challenges to U.S. national security and its allies. Rising tension and instability from these conflicts can have far-reaching consequences, impacting global trade, investment flows, energy prices, and economic fragility.

Potential Intrastate Turmoil

• Addresses the threats posed by domestic turmoil within countries, which can directly affect U.S. national security and its partners. It highlights how global power competition can exacerbate internal conflicts and instability, leading to complex security challenges.

TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES

These subsections highlight critical issues in transnational threats, emphasizing the need for proactive measures and international cooperation to address these complex challenges effectively.

Contested Spaces

Focuses on areas where state and non-state actors compete for influence and control, leading to potential conflicts and instability. It highlights the challenges of contested spaces and their implications for global security.

Disruptive Technology

• Discusses the rapid development and proliferation of disruptive technologies like AI and biotechnology. It emphasizes their potential to create positive advancements and asymmetric threats, impacting national security and economic prosperity.

Digital Authoritarianism and Transnational Repression

• Addresses the spread of repression beyond physical borders through digital means. It explores how authoritarian regimes use technology to suppress dissent and control populations, posing challenges to democratic values and human rights on a global scale.

WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction)

• Delves into the threats associated with the proliferation and potential use of Weapons of Mass Destruction, including nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. It underscores the importance of non-proliferation efforts and preventing the spread of WMDs to maintain global security.

Shared Domains

Focuses on areas of shared concern that transcend national borders. It highlights the importance of addressing issues collaboratively, including environmental change, health security, and migration, to mitigate risks and safeguard global stability. These subsections highlight the multifaceted nature of non-state actor issues and the importance of addressing them comprehensively to safeguard national security interests.

Environmental Change and Extreme Weather

• Discusses the increasing risks to national security interests posed by the physical effects of climate change and environmental degradation. It emphasizes the intersection of these challenges with geopolitical tensions and vulnerabilities in global systems.

Health Security

• Addresses the importance of health security in the context of transnational threats. It underscores the risks associated with pandemics, infectious diseases, and global health crises, highlighting the need for coordinated responses to protect public health and national security.

Migration

• Explores the implications of international migration for global security. It discusses how conflict, economic instability, and environmental change contribute to migration flows and emphasizes the need for comprehensive strategies to address migration’s humanitarian, security, and socio-economic aspects.

Non-State Actor Issues

Addresses the role of non-state actors in shaping global security dynamics. It highlights the diverse threats posed by non-state actors and emphasizes the need for comprehensive strategies to address these challenges effectively.

Transnational Organized Crime

• Discusses how transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) threaten public health systems, exploit the international financial system, and undermine the safety and security of the United States and partner nations. It emphasizes TCOs’ destabilizing effects and their impact on geopolitical interests.

Human Trafficking

• Focuses on the issue of human trafficking as a form of modern slavery that poses significant humanitarian and security challenges. It highlights the exploitation of vulnerable populations and the need for concerted efforts to combat human trafficking and protect human rights.

Global Terrorism

• Delves into the persistent threat of global terrorism and the evolving tactics employed by terrorist organizations. It emphasizes the importance of counterterrorism efforts to prevent terrorist attacks, disrupt networks, and address the root causes of extremism.

Private Military and Security Companies

• Discusses the role of private military and security companies in the global security landscape. It addresses the implications of outsourcing security functions to private entities and the challenges associated with regulating their activities to ensure accountability and adherence to international norms.