Emphasizes the rapid advancement of AI, the need for responsible innovation, and the importance of stakeholder cooperation. It outlines four potential AI development and governance scenarios until 2030, highlighting the importance of global alignment on AI safety and innovation, ethical AI practices, and international cooperation in AI regulation. The report underscores the ubiquitous role of AI in daily life and the importance of societal change, advocating for a proactive approach to AI’s future implications.

The methodology involved engaging with diverse experts from various fields related to AI, including computer science, AI governance, law, and academia. These experts provided valuable insights and perspectives on the potential trajectories of AI development and governance. The report thanks experts from the Global Index on Responsible AI, Robotics & AI Law Society, and the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence for their contributions.

Overview

Scenario 1: The Global Orchard

Imagines a future where an international body, the IAIA, acts like the IPCC. It monitors AI progress, shares guidelines, and advises governments on AI challenges. The ISO consistently updates standards to encourage harmony between AI products and systems. Commercial sectors collaborate to boost coordination, focusing on the financial services industry via the Global Fin-AI institution. This institution tackles systemic and governance risks related to AI in the financial sector, similar to the Basel Committee’s approach.

Legal frameworks are enhanced for trust and transparency, empowering courts to handle AI-related cases. Disputes arising from AI usage, such as likeness infringement involving a virtual influencer, are resolved through due process, developing case law that defines permissible AI activities. Commitments to independent AI arbitration are vital in trade and investment treaties, as shown by the TADTA between the US, UK, and EU. This highlights the need for strong governance, sector collaboration, and evolving legal frameworks to handle AI technology responsibly and ethically.

Scenario 2: Walled gardens

Envisions a future where global political conditions allow for limited AI regulation and governance negotiations. In this scenario, there is alignment on technical standards led by the International Standards Organization (ISO) but a lack of consensus on ethical and values-based principles of AI, such as human rights and privacy. The report indicates that fragmented governance of AI limits public trust and participation of smaller firms due to diverging human rights, privacy rules, and high compliance costs.

This rigidity affects the emerging AI industry in developing economies, which face unreliable internet, high computing costs, limited local data, and brain drain. Europe excels in academia, while the US and China lead commercially in AI. Balancing technical and ethical standards in AI governance fosters trust and innovation. International cooperation on AI principles can address fragmented governance challenges.

Scenario 3: The AI jungle

Depicts a future with a boom in AI innovation but without a unified global approach to governance and standards. This scenario leads to a flourishing of innovation and opens doors to malevolent actors seeking to exploit the lack of cohesive governance frameworks. The report underlines the rise of a diverse, accessible AI ecosystem via regulatory blocs between countries with common values and interests.

This scenario promotes innovation, helps smaller European economies establish AI niches, and heightens consumer exposure to potential threats due to fragmented governance. The AI jungle scenario highlights the need to balance innovation, responsible AI development, and effective governance. It advocates for global collaboration to address the challenges of decentralized AI governance, aiming for a secure and trustworthy AI environment for all.

Scenario 4: Techno archipelago

Presents a future in which countries fail to reach an international agreement on fundamental principles or technical harmonization standards for AI governance. This failure results in a severe splintering of the global AI policy map into a patchwork of different frameworks with varying levels of maturity and obligation.

In this scenario, misaligned global governance results in fragmented AI policies, posing scalability challenges. Due to this complex landscape, larger tech companies hold significant influence. The absence of a consensus on data standards hampers AI performance, leading to subpar outcomes in some fields. The report indicates that the EU’s enforcement of the AI Act faces hurdles, leading to regional divergence and limited scalability. However, this scenario could foster diverse AI ecosystems through regulatory blocs based on shared values and interests.

Policy considerations

Highlights crucial questions for policymakers regarding AI governance. Despite varying future scenarios, policymakers face shared challenges in creating AI governance frameworks that harmonize innovation with ethical AI development. A unified global AI governance requires policymakers to establish a certification and audit framework. The enforcement of AI regulations also needs to be strengthened through national courts.

Furthermore, policymakers must enhance government agencies’ technical capacity to craft AI policies to keep pace with technological advancements. This may involve investing in training and resources to ensure that regulatory frameworks remain relevant and effective in governing AI technologies. It stresses international collaboration in AI regulation to tackle global complexities and challenges. Policymakers should practice ethically and transparently to build public trust and ensure ethical AI use globally.

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