COVID-19: Global trade and supply chains after the pandemic (Ramirez, David, International Institute for Strategic Studies, August 2020; 10p)
This is a well-organized report from an independent consultant to the IISS . The Institute provides information and analysis, builds networks, and seeks to influence security policy globally.
The core messages of this report are:
- COVID-19 resulted in an unprecedented dislocation of international trade and supply chains.
- The World Trade Organization expects international commerce to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020.
- Global supply chains have been permanently changed; China will remain a key player that some countries will never decouple from.
- Localization and regionalization of strategic products is likely and will be costly for the end-consumer.
- Illicit trade has continued during COVID-19, chiefly affecting medical products, requiring a multilateral policy response.